Battle for Aleppo will reveal Putin’s true intentions

Stephen Blackwell looks at the situation in Aleppo and can't help but think of the siege of Sarajevo

When Russia first launched its military intervention in Syria last year, many in Washington felt that Moscow had made a serious mistake. Alexander Utkin / AFP Photo

When Russia launched its military intervention in Syria last year, many in Washington felt that Moscow had made a serious mistake. Suspecting that Russian forces would become bogged down in an intractable conflict, “knock yourselves out” was the dismissive response of one Obama administration official to the Kremlin’s move.

As the Syrian government’s troops, backed by Russian air strikes, tighten their hold on the city of Aleppo, the initially disdainful reaction in Washington now looks seriously misplaced. The US and its allies are now faced with an intensified humanitarian crisis and the real possibility that Bashar Al Assad’s regime will secure a potentially decisive military victory.

The recent abortive talks in Geneva on a possible political solution in Syria served as a smokescreen for a determined government attempt to crush rebel units operating in Aleppo and the surrounding area. If the original Russian intervention appeared limited to bolstering Mr Al Assad’s then-precarious position and stemming the advance of ISIL, there can now be little doubt that Moscow is seeking to neutralise all of the anti-regime forces that have previously received support from the US and its allies in Europe and the Middle East.

The advance on Aleppo also serves the Kremlin’s aim of isolating and presuring Turkey since a Russian Su-24 jet was shot down after being accused of intruding into Turkish airspace last November. Having previously been one of the major backers of anti-Assad forces, Ankara now finds itself facing an escalating refugee crisis and the severing of communications links with rebel groups. Russia has bluntly warned Ankara not to attempt to redress the deteriorating fortunes of the opposition groups by sending its own forces into Syria.

Moscow’s support for the advance on Aleppo effectively undercuts Turkey’s ambitions to manipulate the Syrian crisis to secure a friendly regime in Damascus. The Russians have further alienated Ankara by building up Kurdish factions as a valuable force countering ISIL to the extent that they insisted on Kurdish groups attending the Geneva talks.

For Vladimir Putin, the principle purpose of the intervention is to further his wider geopolitical tussle with the West by fragmenting the EU and Nato.

The tens of thousands of refugees now heading towards Syria’s northern borders will further strain Turkey’s capacity to provide relief and undermine the EU’s efforts to work with Ankara to manage the flow of refugees to Europe. The refugee crisis will also exacerbate divisions among EU member states and boost the growth of those populist right wing parties, several of which receive funding from Russia, committed to anti-EU and anti-immigrant platforms.

Although many civilians have already fled Aleppo, up to 320,000 remain in the rebel-held east of the city. With reinforced opposition forces preparing to defend the city, the stage looks set for a lengthy siege. With Russian air power less effective in urban areas, the government’s forces may look to a lengthy blockade to starve the opposing forces into submission.

In the face of the government’s drive towards Aleppo, the US and its allies look powerless. Supplying anti-aircraft missiles to counter Russia’s impunity in the air seems to be out of the question given fears of a repeat of the experience in 2014 when the Iraqi army’s weaponry fell into ISIL’s hands. The prominence of Jabhat Al Nusra, the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, among the anti-regime forces clustered in east Aleppo will not encourage the western powers.

Through a sequence of cynical and adroit manoeuvres, Mr Putin has isolated Turkey and exposed western impotence to take decisive action to resolve the Syrian crisis. Whether Mr Putin has the stomach for a protracted aerial bombardment of Aleppo remains to be seen.

However, as the Russian economy deteriorates under the impact of Western sanctions and declining oil prices, Moscow is evidently becoming more and more assertive in its efforts to shore up domestic support through demonstrations of Russia’s power in the international arena.

Twenty years ago this month, the siege of the city of Sarajevo in Bosnia was finally lifted after Nato attacks on besieging Bosnian Serb forces and the Dayton peace accords. The belated western military intervention came after mounting international protests against a heavy toll of non-combatant casualties.

Barack Obama’s policy, which has prioritised US military disengagement from the Middle East and the nuclear deal with Iran, now faces a decisive test.

If a similar humanitarian catastrophe unfolds in Aleppo, the US and its allies will find it increasingly difficult to justify their inaction in the face of such a situation.

For the moment, the Russians are in the ascendancy and prevailing in their quest to resolve the Syrian civil war through brute force. Whether or not a disaster can be averted in Aleppo depends on the kind of effective international initiative which, at present, appears a remote prospect.

Stephen Blackwell is an international politics and security analyst