He should have seen it coming. At the beginning of the early 2011 uprising that would become the Syrian civil war, Bashar Al Assad released militants from his prisons to deliberately subvert what was then a peaceful uprising. Four years later, some of those militants are knocking on Damascus’s door and coming for Mr Al Assad.
ISIL fighters took over parts of the beleaguered Palestinian refugee camp Yarmouk on the outskirts of Syria’s capital this week. The continuing offensive, which has encountered fierce resistance from Palestinian factions, came at the end of a particularly volatile week for the Syrian regime. Opposition fighters, with help from the Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front, took control of the crucial town of Idlib, a provincial capital that lies between Aleppo, Damascus and the Alawite stronghold of Latakia. The last border crossing with Jordan under regime control was also taken by Al Nusra Front fighters. These extremists are turning the tide of the conflict, leaving the regime reeling from four years of fighting while its regional ally and benefactor, Iran, is engaged elsewhere – in conflicts in Yemen and Iraq.
If Mr Al Assad is searching for someone to blame for this wave of violence, he doesn't need to look too far. Last year, a former member of Syria's Military Intelligence Directorate told The National that the Assad regime helped facilitate the rise of the militants that are now taking over parts of Syria. According to the official, the regime "did not just open the door to the prisons [where the militants had been held for years] ... it facilitated them in their work, in their creation of armed brigades".
Given the trajectory of the Syrian civil war, the regime will likely respond to ISIL’s appearance in Yarmouk with extreme and disproportionate violence. The camp, which is divided between the Free Syrian Army, Palestinian factions, Al Nusra Front and now ISIL, has been a focal point of regime violence given its proximity to Damascus and melange of resistance fighters.
But regime violence will probably not be limited to Yarmouk. The past week’s events indicate that Mr Al Assad’s control over the country is waning. Given his complete disregard for human life, he will almost certainly resort to extreme violence. It’s painfully clear that the suffering of the people in Yarmouk and all of Syria shows no end.
