By now, the arguments the United States has been advancing about why the Iran deal is good for the Middle East must be firmly ingrained in John Kerry’s mind. The US secretary of state has been making them repeatedly over the past few weeks: to the watching world after the deal was signed, in front of a Congressional hearing in Washington last week and now to various Arab leaders as he tours the Middle East.
The argument will sound familiar to anyone who recalls the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Then, as now, the line was the same: “Well,” critics were asked, “did you want the alternative?” And then as now the reply was the same: this is not the only option. There were many alternatives to invading Iraq, as there are many possible deals other than this one that has been signed with Iran.
But the Gulf states appear broadly willing to wait and see if the deal holds and what the deal will bring. But waiting to see is not the same as waiting to act.
While Mr Kerry was on his way to Doha to meet representatives of the GCC, the Saudi Arabian minister of foreign affairs arrived in Abu Dhabi for talks with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. During those talks Sheikh Mohammed expressed his deep conviction that the kingdom has a central role to play in maintaining stability in the Middle East.
The talks came soon after Saudi Arabia and Egypt signed the “Cairo Declaration”, a pact aimed at drawing the Arab world’s richest country closer to its most populous member. The UAE forms the third part of this “triangle of trust”, ensuring that the Arab world has the stability, strength and prosperity to form a counterweight to Iran.
It is that sort of action that is needed now. The United States remains an essential partner to the Gulf Arab states. But there is no doubt the relationship has been strained, not merely over the talks with Iran, but also because of the perception that the US intends to deprioritise the region and pivot towards Asia.
So while the US will remain important and valuable to the Gulf for many years to come, it is also important that the region looks to itself and its allies for security. That way, the security of the region will not depend merely on external forces or on gentle words.
