Turkey’s influence in the Middle East is undeniable. The country’s foreign policy, however, has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past decade. Under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey invested significant resources in a zero problems with neighbours strategy in the late 2000s. This changed with the beginning of the Arab Spring protests as Ankara supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas in Gaza and a variety of rebel groups fighting Bashar Al Assad in Syria.
The pivot paid few dividends for Mr Erdogan and now a shift back to a more constructive regional policy apparently is underway. Turkey has more recently shown that it understands the need for allies, not enemies, at this chaotic time. Yet, even then, there should be due caution paid. Earlier this week, the Turkish prime minister Binali Yildirim said in a televised speech that his country will expand the circle of friendship. “We have already started doing it. Now I’m sure we will normalise ties with Syria. We need it.”
Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Turkey has been one of the most vociferous critics of the Assad regime and the greatest proponents of regime change in Damascus. Mr Yildirim’s follow-up comments show that Turkey is not planning to abandon its anti-Assad position but it seems clear that a decision has been made to mend fences.
In future, Turkey must strive to be more transparent with its allies. Its position and stature in the region can’t be underplayed, but going it alone when it comes to foreign policy challenges such as the Syrian war will help no one.
There is a regional consensus, which Turkey had a hand in crafting, that Bashar Al Assad must be removed from power through force or diplomacy. Changing tack on this position at this point in the war could have profound consequences for the rebellion fighting for a safe and stable Syria.
We hope that policymakers in Ankara understand what is at stake.
