What Abu Dhabi’s financial services sector may look like in 2045

Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi’s ambition is to be one of those global financial ecosystems, and how it pursues that ambition matters. The National

The question facing every financial hub isn’t whether they can facilitate more transactions; it’s whether they can serve economies that look nothing like they did 20 years ago.

A biotech SME needs capital tied to clinical milestones rather than traditional asset-backed lending. An autonomous vehicle manufacturer requires insurance without historical loss data. A solar developer seeks transition finance linked to verified carbon reductions. Millions of professionals moving across the Gulf still cannot take long-term savings across borders.

These scenarios expose the gap between 20th-century financial infrastructure and 21st-century financial requirements. Being a hub for capital is no longer sufficient: the future belongs to ecosystems where capital, regulation, expertise and innovation move as fluidly as the economies they serve.

Abu Dhabi’s ambition is to be one of those global financial ecosystems, and how it pursues that ambition matters.

For decades, the UAE and the wider Gulf Co-operation Council have long been exporters of capital. Regional sovereign wealth has helped stabilise global markets and finance growth elsewhere. Abu Dhabi alone manages $1.7 trillion in sovereign wealth, the largest concentration of any city in the world. At home, non-oil activities now account for more than half of Abu Dhabi’s economy, with non-oil gross domestic product reaching its highest quarterly value at Dh174.1 billion ($46.6 billion) in the second quarter of this year.

Globally, financial services are expected to reach Dh125 trillion by 2045, with technology-driven models capturing a growing share. Fintech revenues alone are projected to exceed Dh4 trillion by 2032. Abu Dhabi sees substantial opportunity in critical sectors where it competes, such as fintech, reinsurance, savings, private capital and others. The question is how much of that value can be originated, structured and managed from the emirate.

Three structural shifts are shaping the answer.

First, innovation is cross-sectoral. A health-tech company in Abu Dhabi’s “Helm” (Health, Endurance, Longevity and Medicine) cluster that is developing AI diagnostics needs more than venture capital. It requires regulatory guidance on data privacy, product liability cover, clinical partnerships and routes to scale. Where no single financial institution provides this, co-ordinated infrastructure can.

Second, capital is increasingly specialised. Today’s growth companies might need pre-seed capital, venture debt, milestone-based equity, private credit, transition finance, carbon credits and eventual secondary liquidity, often simultaneously. Serving them requires co-ordination among development banks and sovereign investors, as well as commercial lenders and exchanges that historically operated in silos.

Abu Dhabi’s edge lies in treating business-friendly regulation as a competitive asset that is technology-aware, internationally credible and grounded in local priorities

Third, talent has become mobile, but financial systems haven’t. In a region of high labour mobility and rising life expectancy, fragmented, employer-specific arrangements are no longer sufficient. Professionals building careers across Abu Dhabi and the region expect financial products that move with them, from portable, well-regulated savings, cross-border digital payments and insurance that doesn’t restart with every relocation. These are prerequisites for knowledge-based economies and for attracting people to build for the long-term.

Nothing illustrates ecosystem thinking better than transition finance. The UAE has committed $30 billion to climate finance through a fund that aims to mobilise $250 billion in investments by 2030. As capital owners must show measurable climate impact, hubs with credible platforms for transition finance, robust data and verification and risk frameworks will have the advantage. Only when banks, insurers, asset managers and regulators operate as a co-ordinated ecosystem does transition finance scale and improve.

Regulation is the core advantage. There is an active global contest for leadership in digital assets, sustainable finance and new forms of savings and pensions. Many jurisdictions are retrofitting old rules. Abu Dhabi’s edge lies in treating business-friendly regulation as a competitive asset that is technology-aware, internationally credible and grounded in local priorities.

Ecosystem development is measured in years, not quarters. Success goes beyond volumes, assets under management and licences to impact: Can an alternative protein company raise appropriate capital each year? Do insurance products exist for emerging industries? Can professionals build careers across the region while building retirement security?

These are the tests of a next-generation financial ecosystem.

The financial centres that will matter in 2045 will be those that built regulatory, technological or human infrastructure that enabled entirely new forms of economic activity to flourish. That’s what ecosystems do. And that’s the work ahead as Abu Dhabi aims to advance the next generation of financial services.