North Korea faces its darkest moment

North Korea can collapse suddenly, without warning, just like the Berlin Wall

More than two weeks after the shocking execution of Jang Song Thaek, one of North Korea's most powerful men who also happened to be the uncle of Kim Jong-Un, speculation is rife over what motivated such a brutal move. One clue emerged during the New Year's address, when Mr Kim denounced his deceased uncle as "factional filth".

The expression reinforces the belief that the killing was perhaps meant to pave the way for Mr Kim to consolidate his power within a large and bureaucratic structure dominated by older, more experienced statesmen, some of whom are opposed to his leadership.

An earlier report in The New York Times said that Jang’s death could be the result of a gun battle over a single policy issue between Mr Kim’s deceased uncle’s supporters and those of the regime. Some analysts also believe that Mr Kim was coerced into ordering the killing by a powerful faction within the regime. Whatever the case, it clearly boils down to a powerful and damaging leadership struggle.

There are two possible fallouts from the execution. One is that it will lead to a sense of resignation among ordinary, hard-pressed North Koreans that their condition will never improve. The other is that it will exacerbate any discontent among the supreme leader’s political opponents, and even among common citizens, who might interpret the disunity within the ruling family as a sign of growing nationwide instability. Internal upheaval could also have far-reaching foreign-policy ramifications, as North Korea seeks to beef up its military defences to thwart any possible attempt by outsiders to exploit the situation at home.

The Kim dynasty has ruled with an iron fist for more than six decades, forcing North Koreans to brave chronic economic deprivation and dire living conditions while feeding the state’s nuclear programme and fomenting trouble with South Korea. It is unlikely that Mr Kim can guarantee the continuation of the dynasty’s future through such repressive policies. On the contrary, such decisions are more likely to precipitate its downfall.

In this regard, North Korea has something in common with the former Soviet satellite states of post-war Eastern Europe, who also often relied on displays of military might and heavy-handedness to ward off domestic dissent. History tells us that the Eastern Bloc fell suddenly and without warning. It’s certainly possible that North Korea could do the same.