The US and Iran have signed a deal. Well, not a deal, an MoU – a memorandum of understanding that basically means the parameters are agreed but the details are not. And the devil is in the details.
At first glance, many would say Iran got quite a good deal: promises of sanctions removal, a $300 billion fund for reconstruction, and no mention of Tehran’s proxies, missiles or drones. And yet, a proper reading of the document highlights that many of the terms are yet to be finalised and are conditions. For example, for the international sanctions to be removed, the details of the deal need to be worked out and agreed. Iran has also committed to never procuring or developing nuclear weapons.
The hard work of negotiations and diplomacy continues through the summer in the hope of a final deal by August 17, the self-imposed deadline announced in the MoU.
Trust is at an all-time low between those affected by the Iran war, especially between the Gulf and Iran. So, getting to such a deal with the help of Qatar is quite the achievement. Furthermore, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi all attending the G7 meeting ahead of the signing reinforced the role of Arab countries in bringing the ceasefire agreement to fruition.
The scene is now set for potentially new areas of rapprochement between various sides in the region, including reports of a potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
However, spoilers remain, with vested interests among armed groups and extremist leaders, meaning the potential for renewed conflict is never far away.
And after expectations that talks would begin in Switzerland today, they were cancelled at short notice, in the first of many moments of misalignment between the two sides.
Our foreign editor, Mohamad Ali Harisi, who made last-minute plans to go to Burgenstock in Switzerland once talks were confirmed, was among dozens of journalists who had to change their plans once again and leave the resort after the talks hit their first hurdle. The Swiss Foreign Ministry announced a postponement. It gave no new date for renewed talks – or a reason for the postponement.
As the saga of the talks continues, there is a collective sigh of relief that, at least for now, the war has stopped. Hopefully that extends to Lebanon and eventually to Palestine. However, with the signing of the deal in Versailles, all too many people have made the point that the Treaty of Versailles formally ended the First World War in 1919 but also sowed the seeds for a much greater conflict a few years later.
Let us hope history will inform those involved and help them avoid such a pitfall, and that all sides move towards peace and away from war.
Stories that defined the week
I hope you enjoy this week’s newsletter and please do write to me at eic@thenationalnews.com with any feedback.
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