This has been the month of elections. While polls in Brazil and Serbia brought about surprise developments and are interesting stories to follow, the Middle East was captured by the Israeli elections last Tuesday. There is no expectation that the next Israeli government will be a left-wing or even centrist one – but whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition return to power could dictate whether there is renewed war in the region and even more extreme measures in Palestine.
If these elections were a referendum on Mr Netanyahu and his extremist allies, then he lost. Mr Netanyahu's coalition lost a combined 15 seats but it still has the largest number, with 53 in the 120-seat Knesset.
But no other coalition has the 61 seats needed to form a government.
In an irony that befits the unprecedented times we are living in, the Arab parties could end up being kingmakers in Israel's next government, with 19 seats between them. While it was expected that they would do well, no one predicted they would do this well – with so many seats in parliament and a clear mandate from a substantial portion of Israeli voters to be part of the political life of the country.
While government formation is expected to take some time in Israel, our eyes are already on the next decisive elections that could have a serious impact on the Middle East – America's midterms. On Wednesday morning, as we begin to wake up in the Arab world, the last US polling stations will be closing. There are multiple local issues at play, and some state and local offices up for grabs, but for those of us outside the US, all we want to know is will US President Donald Trump still have Congress on his side?
With all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats, including special elections in Florida and Ohio, up for grabs, the Republicans' hold on Congress is at stake.
How the results will influence the White House's ability to act abroad, including potential strikes on Iran, is yet to be seen. Both Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump have spoken before the elections of "getting the job done" in Iran, although it is unclear whether "the job" is regime change or just more strikes. Will they still be able to? The Iranian regime is certainly watching.
With one election down and another round the corner, many in the region are holding their breath as to what comes next. I learnt years ago – 10 years ago to be precise, after I failed to predict the British public would vote for Brexit – not to try to forecast what will happen when voters go to the polls. But one thing remains certain: how America chooses to vote still reverberates around the world.
I write this newsletter from Bahrain, where the IISS is holding its annual Manama Dialogue, and that reverberation is felt in most conversations about the security trajectory of the region here.
My colleagues in the US have been covering the lead-up to the US midterms brilliantly and will be across all the developments there – as will our team in Abu Dhabi, carrying the baton as the results are declared. While the stakes are high and the situation is serious, there is a journalistic thrill in not really knowing how elections will go and what the immediate future holds. Watch this space.
Stories that defined the week
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