Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are in the region, and another is on the way. Families of US government personnel have been ordered to leave Saudi Arabia. And Israel has reportedly conducted a military sortie near the Iranian border.
Recent developments have left the Gulf on edge and have increased concerns that the US and Israeli could resume strikes against Iran, perhaps even before Israel's general election on October 27 and the US midterms on November 3.
US President Donald Trump said on October 8 that he would not renew attacks against Iran before the midterms. But reports that Washington and Israel are preparing for renewed military operations have raised questions about whether the conflict could escalate before then.
On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. Some interpreted this to mean an attack against Iran was coming, especially amid reports that personnel could be withdrawn from other countries.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said the order applies only to Saudi Arabia and was prompted by the threat from Yemen's Houthis, who have attacked Saudi airports and other critical sites.
But another State Department representative said that "the hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly, including beyond that immediate area”.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Iranian officials appeared to view a renewed conflict as a real possibility and he warned that the political thinking around both elections could influence decisions about whether to escalate.
“It’s not so much the logic of the war that might be in the driver’s seat; it’s the logic of the politics, particularly in Israel, that might be in the driver’s seat,” Mr Vatanka said.
Quoting senior Iranian officials and a US official, Drop Site News reported that Washington and Israel believe large-scale bombing could begin before Israel's election.
An unidentified senior Iranian official told the outlet that Tehran's intelligence assessment indicated a high likelihood of an attack before October 27, with Israel potentially striking Iranian air defences first to clear the way for US bombers.
Iran's national security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, has repeatedly said that Iran can continue missile and drone attacks against US assets across the region if fighting resumes.
He has also warned that Tehran could widen its targets to include data centres, artificial intelligence sites and undersea cables, he warned.
Mr Vatanka said he did not think the strike would come before the US and Israeli elections.
"If I had to had to gamble, I'll say it's unlikely to happen," he said. "Any new round [of fighting] is just going to be that much more devastating for the region. And when the region is devastated, US interests are also going to suffer massively. I do suspect that's going to be one of those areas where Trump might be sensitive to pressure."
Quoting US officials and other sources, The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the midterms.
The proposed campaign could attack Iranian energy and nuclear sites, and missile and drone arsenals, with the aim of forcing Tehran to make diplomatic concessions. The report said a strike before the midterms had not been entirely ruled out, however, and that Mr Trump could ultimately decide against further military action.
Still, he has hinted at renewed strikes after the midterms.
At last month's UN General Assembly, he said he was deciding whether to annihilate Iran. And in a Newsmax interview on October 15, he spoke about the Mother of All Bombs, the largest non-nuclear device in the Pentagon's arsenal, but he did not say if he would use it against Iran.
Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu launched the Iran conflict on February 28. The Trump administration initially projected the war would only last a few weeks but it has been unable to topple the regime in Tehran, strike a durable deal or completely defeat Iran militarily.
If Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu do resume the war, the consequences could be devastating for the region, Mr Vatanka said, with Iran threatening to retaliate against Israel and Gulf states, as well as US interests.
Axios on Wednesday reported that dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets conducted a "power projection" sortie this week, close to the Iranian border.
