The UN Security Council held a fourth secret straw poll on Tuesday in the increasingly consequential race to choose the organisation’s next Secretary General, with Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan widening her lead.
“The fourth round of straw polls has taken place,” France's UN ambassador, Jerome Bonnafont, council president for September, told reporters without disclosing the outcome.
Diplomats told The National that Ms Grynspan led the latest poll with 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” votes.
Guyana’s UN ambassador, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi were close behind, each receiving eight “encourage” votes.
Ms Rodrigues-Birkett received six “discourage” votes and one “no opinion,” while Mr Grossi received seven “discourage” votes and no “no opinion” votes.
The contest to succeed Antonio Guterres has yet to produce a candidate with leading support.
Ms Grynspan, a former Costa Rican vice president who has led the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) since 2021, entered Tuesday’s vote with a narrow advantage after finishing first in the previous round.
The straw poll results are only part of the equation. Candidates must also secure the support of the council’s five permanent members, any of which can block a nominee.
Minh-Thu Pham, co-founder of the Starling Institute and former adviser to Secretary General Kofi Annan, told The National that Ms Birkett Rodrigues faces resistance from Washington over both perceived closeness to China and her positions on Gaza.
Mr Grossi's bid meanwhile is hampered by Russian opposition, and by Argentine President Javier Milei's remarks on the Falkland Islands, which Britain would find hard to overlook, she added.
“I think if a candidate gets through right now in this difficult environment, it means that they have what it takes,” said Ms Pham.
The selection carries particular significance this year. In its 81-year history, the UN has never been led by a woman, and several women are among the candidates seeking the post.
Ms Pham said the world body does not necessarily need a high-profile political figure as its next leader, arguing that a candidate with a more technocratic background might be more willing to challenge governments and take risks.
“I think you need a Secretary General who is not, at the outset, a rock star,” she noted.
She pointed to the current UN chief, Antonio Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister, saying expectations that his political experience would translate into a strong leadership profile had produced a “pretty mixed” record.
“I think he was a bit more hesitant to step into the role of upsetting governments when he maybe needed to, when push came to shove,” Ms Pham said.
A former technical bureaucrat, by contrast, might approach the position with greater humility, she said, referring to former UN chief Kofi Annan’s description of “SG” as standing not only for Secretary General but also for “scapegoat.”
The next phase of the contest is expected to bring greater clarity. The council traditionally moves to colour-coded ballots, which distinguish the votes of its five permanent members – China, France, Russia, Britain and the United States – from those of its 10 elected members. That can expose whether a candidate who appears to have broad support nonetheless faces a potential veto.
A candidate ultimately needs at least nine votes in the Security Council and must avoid opposition from any of its five veto-wielding permanent members – China, France, Russia, the UK and the US. The Security Council then recommends a candidate to the 193-member General Assembly for appointment.
