US President Donald Trump is due to give remarks on Friday at a Saudi Arabia-backed investment forum, with the world watching whether he will outline a pathway to end the Iran war.
Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative (FII) Priority summit in Miami is billed as a platform for Gulf and US companies to conduct business. Now in its fourth year, the summit is operating under the tagline “capital in motion”.
This year's backdrop is in stark contrast to 2025, when Mr Trump boasted of major private-sector investment pledges, touted the US-Saudi relationship, highlighted his 2024 presidential election win, and his desire to be “a peacemaker” and “keep us out of war”.
Today, Gulf states have lamented that they have been dragged into a war they do not want and one that is expected to weaken economic growth in the region.
Gulf countries, which are major oil producers, have announced significant shut-ins in recent weeks due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sweeping Iranian attacks on key energy sites, leading to one of the biggest oil disruptions in history.
Saudi Arabia is perhaps better positioned to absorb the economic impact of the conflict because it can export oil through its East-West pipeline, and because it is less reliant on foreign labour and investment.
Estimates say Saudi Arabia's GDP will decline roughly 5 per cent this year, while the UAE faces a contraction of possibly 8 to 10 per cent, although this these figures could change due to uncertainty over the conflict's duration and impact.
“I would certainly expect non-oil growth to take a hit across the region. Dubai is clearly getting the biggest hit of anyone from what we can see in the limited data out there but I think confidence, investment, willingness to visit the region, broader logistics are all being affected,” said Tim Callen, visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
Despite this uncertainty, leaders from Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reaffirmed their countries' investment commitments. They pledged to invest $2 trillion into the US during Mr Trump's landmark visit to the Gulf last May.
Mr Trump on Thursday extended a deadline for attacking Iranian energy sites by 10 days, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran. US special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said in Washington earlier on Thursday that Iran was presented with a 15-point plan to reach a peace deal. Jared Kushner, Mr Trump's son-in-law who has worked in the discussions with Mr Witkoff, did not offer updates on negotiations on Thursday, only saying the President wants Iran to behave “like a normal country”.
The World Bank Group said it is ready to respond “at scale” to provide immediate relief, saying that a number of its clients in emerging markets have reached out to it for assistance.
