Former US national security adviser John Bolton warned that Iran’s ability to shut the Strait of Hormuz is becoming “ever more palpable”, as the war in the Middle East rages on.
He said Washington had to fear Tehran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran's "nuclear programme and its terrorist activities". His comments come as the Gulf is gripped by war and disruption in the strait drives up energy prices.
Mr Bolton urged Gulf Arab states to join the conflict against Iran, saying their participation would be critical to securing regional stability. “I hope they do. I think this is going to be critical to whether we get a possibility of peace and stability in the region,” he told The National.
“Back in the time of the shah [Mohammad Reza Pahlavi] … Gulf Arabs and Iran were competitors in international affairs and they had the same issues that states around the world have between themselves, but they weren't bitter enemies. I think any regime in Iran that is not the current regime has to be more conducive to equilibrium in the Gulf and maybe even truly enhanced peace and security.”
Mr Bolton said he "long favoured regime change" in Iran as the only means to ensure "last peace" in the region. But he said "part of his problem here is that [Mr Trump] has not thought through strategically various possibilities that could occur once he began the attacks".
“I come from the point of view of somebody who wants to see regime change happen, and I'm worried that the mistakes Trump has made may prevent that," he added.
He said Mr Trump’s decision to delay a plan for strikes on Iranian power plants by five days "could be he really thinks the Iranians want to negotiate – I don’t see that myself".
“It may also be to buy time to get additional US assets in place for some other operation … or it may be or it may be that he just wanted to calm markets down," he added.
He repeated his belief that regime change remained the only viable path to ensuring the security and stability of the Middle East.
“The regime won't change its behaviour. The only way forward is to change the regime," he said.
While ruling out a large-scale ground operation by American troops, he set out an alternative strategy focused on weakening Iran from within. “If you systematically destroy the institutions of Iranian state power that threaten their adversaries … that destabilises the regime,” he said, arguing that sustained pressure could lead to internal collapse.
He added that the killing of senior leaders and the erosion of the regime’s control could encourage defections and internal opposition. “Any regime that can’t defend itself will fall,” he said.
Looking ahead, Mr Bolton said the most stable outcome would be a transitional military-led government drawn from the country's regular armed forces, followed by a new political system shaped by Iranians.
“I think the most benign outcome of the turmoil inside Iran is a military government of some kind, led by generals of the regular army, not the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guard – a force that can restore order and then hopefully give the people of Iran a chance,” he said.
“Nobody wants the regime as structured by the Ayatollahs to remain in place. It's not a question simply putting new leaders in old positions. It's a question of really writing a new constitution.”
He said Iran’s opposition remains fragmented and warned against external interference. “It would be a terrible mistake to impose anybody from the outside,” he said, noting Iranians have endured 47 years of clerical rule.
Mr Bolton issued a note of caution about the risks if the current leadership endures. “I think that if you leave a wounded regime in place in Tehran, but with oil flowing so they get revenue again, they will rebuild the nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. They will rebuild the terrorist network,” he said. “They will know for certainty that they can close the Strait of Hormuz and cause enormous damage to the global economy at their will.
“Winston Churchill once said, what he described is the confirmed unteachability of mankind, of not being willing to address a problem when it's small and can be handled and waiting until it becomes life threatening, and we've done that for 35 years with the regime in Iran.”
Mr Bolton, who served under Mr Trump in his first term in office, questioned the way the US leader has handled the conflict. “I think the military plan, all in all, has been quite good. But on the political side, this is a reflection of how Trump operates. He does not think strategically. He thinks in the spur of the moment, everything is a new transaction to him, and that what you see is the consequence of that failure on his part."
