President Donald Trump attended a solemn ceremony marking the return of the bodies of two US soldiers and an interpreter who were killed in an ISIS ambush, with questions mounting in Washington about America's role in Syria and its support of the new government.
Mr Trump met privately with the men's families at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday, four days after they were shot in Palmyra by a member of Syria's internal security forces with ISIS ties.
Their deaths have prompted renewed calls for the US to pull its about 900 remaining troops from Syria. And some prominent Republicans appear to be growing nervous about America's support for Damascus, with concerns growing over whether President Ahmad Al Shara can bring security to the fractured country.
Influential Republicans have been sceptical of Mr Trump's embrace of Mr Al Shara and the lifting of all sanctions, saying they would prefer to wait and see how Syria's new leader governs.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a prominent conservative voice on US foreign policy and a close ally of Mr Trump, this week sounded a cautious tone on Syria, saying there is increasing evidence that its security forces are more radical than Damascus claims.
“While I support trying to help this new government in Syria, we have to do it with eyes wide open,” he said on X, adding that Israel is correct to push for secure zones in southern Syria.
“Israel is right to insist on security zones protecting not just Israel, but also minorities in Syria like the Druze.”
Syria's Druze religious community in the country's south has seen clashes with government-aligned Syrian forces, particularly in Sweida.
Mr Graham's remarks highlight concerns over a widely circulated video that showing Syrian forces chanting anti-Israel slogans at a parade in Damascus in front of Mr Al Shara.
Reacting to the video, which Mr Graham referred to in his post, Amichai Chikli, Israel's Minister of Diaspora and Combating Anti-Semitism, posted a chilling warning on X: “War is inevitable.”
Mr Chikli had called Syria a “full-blown jihadist terror state”, pointing to the killings of members of the Druze and Alawite communities among other issues.
Walid Phares, a former foreign policy adviser to Mr Trump, said a demilitarised zone should be a condition of any agreement between Israel and Syria.
A deal should also include “self-determination” for large parts of Syria, he said, including the Druze minority's heartland in the south and a north-east region with a significant Kurdish presence. Mr Al Shara has previously rejected the idea of a federal Syria.
Mr Al Shara led Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a group formerly linked with Al Qaeda. Since he led the removal of Bashar Al Assad last year, he has undertaken a charm offensive in the West and won major backing from Mr Trump, after an intervention by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh in May.
Karim Bitar, former dean at Lebanon’s Universite Saint-Joseph and lecturer in Middle East Studies at Sciences Po Paris, told The National that Israel is seeking to revive its long-standing “periphery doctrine” amid questions over whether Washington is shifting its position on Syria after the recent ISIS attack.
The doctrine, conceived before Israel’s founding in 1948, is based on the idea that Israel, facing a hostile Sunni Arab heartland, should seek alliances with ethnic and religious minorities in surrounding countries, as well as with non-Arab and non-Muslim states in the region, Mr Bitar said.
Historically, this included close ties with Turkey, Ethiopia and Iran under the Shah, as well as communication with Kurds, Druze, Maronites and other minority groups.
Mr Bitar said Israel may now be seeking to exploit the fears of minorities in Syria and Lebanon, raising concern about renewed efforts to push the region towards ethnic or sectarian fragmentation.
While some figures in the Trump administration may be ideologically aligned with Israel’s vision, he said US policymakers would have to consider strong objections from key regional allies, particularly Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which see regional fragmentation as a destabilising gamble that could have long-term consequences for Middle East stability.
Gregg Roman, executive director of the centre-right think tank Middle East Forum, predicted that unless Mr Al Shara can quell fighting between ISIS and Damascus, as well as tension between HTS and Syrian Kurdish forces, then 2026 could see the fragmentation of Syria.
“I think that there will be a significant conflict between the Sunni jihadis and Damascus and the Syrian Kurds that could lead to the bifurcation … of the state between the Kurds in the north-east and the HTS folks in Damascus,” he told The National.
Mr Roman said Turkey would play a critical role if it moves to push Kurdish groups away from the border region with Syria.
Another unknown for next year is the fate of the American troops that remain in Syria, mainly in the north-east and at Al Tanf garrison in the south. Saturday's attack led to renewed calls for the soldiers to be brought home.
“Why are we still keeping small tripwire forces in a war zone without a clear mission or congressional authorisation?” Republican Senator Rand Paul said on X. “America cannot keep drifting into conflict on autopilot.”
