The UN Security Council is considering a draft resolution that would ease long-standing sanctions on Syrian officials and restore international dealings with its government, in the most significant shift in policy towards Damascus in more than a decade.
The US-drafted resolution was circulated among the Council’s 15 members on October 9. It would allow the flow of financial assets, funds and economic resources to Syria’s central government.
The text, seen by The National, underscores the tension at the heart of the international community’s Syria policy: how to re-engage a government once ostracised for its brutality while keeping pressure on armed groups still considered to be terrorist organisations.
The draft stresses that member states, including Syria, must continue to “prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIS and all other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIS,” while ensuring that no Syrian actor provides support to such groups.
If adopted, the measure would also relax limits on arms transfers, allowing under UN supervision the provision of equipment and technical expertise for narrowly defined purposes, including chemical weapons disposal, nuclear protection and demining operations, which diplomats say are essential for rebuilding infrastructure and enabling displaced Syrians to return home.
It also calls for delisting President Ahmad Al Shara and his Interior Minister, Anas Khattab, from the UN’s sanctions list “effective as of the date" of the resolution.
According to a UN diplomat, China has indicated it is comfortable with the proposed delistings, in a rare moment of consensus among the five permanent members on the Security Council.
Even so, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the dissolved militant faction that forms the backbone of Mr Al Shara’s government, would remain under UN sanctions.
HTS traces its origins to Jabhat Al Nusra, Al Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate that rebranded itself in 2017 in an effort to shed its extremist image.
Acting under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, the draft “decides” that the asset freeze imposed under previous counter-terrorism resolutions would no longer apply to funds or economic resources provided to the Syrian government.
It urges states and institutions to take steps to ensure that any money or assets do not benefit people or entities still listed under the UN’s ISIS and Al Qaeda sanctions regime.
Maya Ungar, a UN analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the resolution contains two provisions that could be decisive for Syria’s recovery and reconstruction.
“The first is a clarification that asset freezes no longer apply to the Syrian government, even if sanctioned individuals are part of it,” Ms Ungar told The National.
“It’s meant to reassure risk-averse financial institutions and encourage investment. Still, many banks are likely to remain cautious, since sanctions on HTS as an organisation would remain in place even if Mr Al Shara and Mr Khattab are delisted.”
The second element, added Ms Ungar, involves a limited easing of the arms embargo to allow UN nuclear and chemical weapons agencies – as well as mine-action services – to operate more effectively in Syria. “This clarification is intended to make reconstruction and development a smoother process,” she said.
The five pillars of Islam
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
