How Trump has thrown the race to succeed Guterres as UN Secretary General wide open

It was a woman's turn. It was a Latin American's turn. So went the consensus. Then along came the Don...

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres leaves the podium after addressing the 77th session of the General Assembly in September 2022. AP

Chatter is building at UN headquarters in New York about who will succeed Antonio Guterres - even though the next Secretary General will not take up the post until 2027.

The contest for head of the world body is unfolding amid shifting global power dynamics, US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and views about who might be the UN's next leader has shifted considerably over the past year.

“Before Trump’s victory, everyone agreed that the next UN chief had to be a woman and most probably from Latin America,” said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group.

But Mr Trump, who has scrapped initiatives to hire more women and minorities in the US government, is complicating the matter.

“Up is down, black is white, and the new conventional wisdom is that the winner will be a man,” Mr Gowan said.

Grossi declares candidacy

Rafael Grossi, director general of the IAEA, is a highly regarded possible candidate for UN leadership. EPA

One official benefiting from this recalibration is Rafael Grossi, the Argentine diplomat who currently leads the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“People are now talking about him as a front-runner,” Mr Gowan said.

Mr Grossi, 64, confirmed his bid during a press conference in Washington on August 27, noting he had already discussed his candidacy with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

If elected, Mr Grossi would become only the second Latin American to hold the post, following Peru’s Javier Perez de Cuellar, who served from 1982 to 1991.

A western Security Council diplomat told The National the Argentine comes from a country with “rather unusual positions” and has been “lobbying extensively” for the role.

“We’ve heard that he even has a campaign manager in New York City,” the diplomat added.

Mr Grossi’s reputation rests on decades in nuclear diplomacy and non-proliferation.

“Grossi … maybe actually peaking a little too soon in his race,” noted Mr Gowan, adding that the IAEA chief is still “juggling Iran and the Ukrainian nuclear sites, which is a bit like juggling chainsaws there is quite a high chance that you get hurt”.

“I don't think we would say with great confidence that he is going to wrap up the race.”

The office comes with a five-year term, renewable once. The successful candidate must draw broad support from UN member states before confronting the Security Council, where any of the five permanent members - the US, UK, France, Russia or China - can block the choice with a veto.

Pressure for a woman leader

A campaign for the UN to choose its first woman secretary general is a powerful force.

“There are a lot of good female candidates from Latin America who are not going to quit the race without a fight,” Mr Gowan said.

Among the names circulating is Rebeca Grynspan, the Costa Rican economist who heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and enjoys broad credibility.

Alicia Barcena, Mexico’s Secretary for the Environment, is also frequently mentioned, as is Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who remains a widely admired figure despite speculation that her star has dimmed since Mr Trump’s return.

Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, speaks during day two of the high-level segment of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference at Expo City Dubai on December 02, 2023 in Dubai. Getty Images

Some contenders are moving more discreetly, building networks of support among member states that could ultimately tip the balance. Their bids will play out during the UN General Assembly high level week starting September 22.

The Security Council is expected to release an initial list of candidate names in late October.

Burmese historian Thant Myint-U, grandson of former secretary general U Thant, warned recently that the stakes are existential.

“The wrong choice could mean the end of the only global body dedicated to peace,” he said. “The right personality, a courageous and cool-headed mediator, may not only save the organisation, but could also, in the not-too-distant future, play an indispensable role in saving the world.”

Washington’s leverage

For Washington, the succession offers a chance to shape the UN’s future.

“The US administration is really intrigued by the opportunity to shape the future of the UN by deciding who gets to lead it from 2027,” said Mr Gowan. “I understand that US officials are saying that they will hold back on demanding big reforms to the UN until their own pick for Secretary General is in place.”

That influence could prove decisive. Diplomats note that while the General Assembly formally elects the secretary general, the real power lies with the Security Council and in practice with its five permanent members.

Another Security Council diplomat told The National the permanent members need to allow space for the secretary general to mediate and use their “good offices” functions.

“If you don’t give him or her that space, the secretary general won’t be able to carry out those duties,” the diplomat said.

Informal rules, hard vetoes

Over time, the UN has developed informal conventions that shape the race. A 1997 General Assembly resolution stipulated that “due regard shall continue to be given to regional rotation and shall also be given to gender equality”.

Regional balance has gradually widened the pool of candidates: after three of the first four secretaries general came from Western Europe, subsequent appointments have come from Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Eastern Europe, the only regional group never to have produced a secretary general, is widely seen as deserving of its turn, though the region’s polarised politics and strained relations with Russia may complicate matters.

Language also matters. The successful candidate must be fluent in English and French, the UN’s working languages.

The road to the post is shaped less by lofty ideals and more by the need to avoid vetoes from the five permanent members of the Security Council. The rules are unwritten, but history shows the P5 enforce their prerogative with little hesitation.

Egypt's Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who served as the sixth secretary general from 1992 to 1996, was denied a second term after repeated well-publicised disagreements with Washington over peacekeeping.

The contest is expected to produce twists, late entries and geopolitical bargaining. The only certainty is that the road to the 38th floor of the UN’s glass tower in midtown Manhattan will be anything but smooth.

Mr Guterres will finish his second five-year mandate at the end of 2026, bringing to a close a tenure shaped by intensifying great-power rivalry, increasing lack of trust in the world body, worsening climate emergencies, and deepening turmoil in the Middle East.