CIA says Covid origin ‘likely’ from lab in ‘low confidence’ assessment

US intelligence agency now believes Covid-19 pandemic may have started from Chinese laboratory

A US CDC image of Sars-CoV-2 virus particles that cause Covid-19. AP

The CIA believes the virus responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released on Saturday that blames China while acknowledging that the spy agency has “low confidence” in its conclusion.

The finding is not the result of any new intelligence and the report was completed at the behest of former president Joe Biden's administration and former CIA director William Burns. It was declassified and released on Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump's nomination to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director.

The finding suggests the agency believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more probable than a natural origin. However, the agency's assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting the evidence is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory.

Earlier reports on the origins of Covid-19 have split over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally.

Intelligence officials say it may never be resolved, due to a lack of co-operation from Chinese authorities.

“CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the Covid-19 pandemic remain plausible,” an official for the agency wrote about the agency's assessment.

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Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh intelligence about the virus's spread, its scientific properties and the work and conditions of China's virology labs.

Politicians have pressured America's spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which led to lockdowns, economic upheaval and millions of deaths.

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists think the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, probably raccoon dogs, civet cats or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

Some official investigations, however, have raised questions of whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Two years ago a report by the Department of Energy concluded a lab leak was the most probable origin, though that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.

Mr Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump's first term, has said he favours the lab leak scenario.

“The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense,” Mr Ratcliffe said in 2023.

The CIA “will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment,” the agency official said.