When will sanctions against Syria be lifted?

Western nations watch cautiously as Syria emerges from a quarter-century of brutal rule by president Bashar Al Assad

The leader of Syria's Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) group, Ahmad Al Shara addresses a crowd at the capital's landmark Umayyad Mosque on December 8, 2024. AFP

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Calls are growing for foreign powers to lift sanctions imposed on Syria, which would help the country rebuild after the collapse of the Assad regime, but some experts and officials are warning against easing restrictions too quickly.

The US, the EU, Canada and other countries imposed severe sanctions against the regime of president Bashar Al Assad in response to his violent crackdown on protests from 2011 onwards and actions in the ensuing civil war. Some western sanctions date back even further, to when Mr Al Assad's father Hafez was in power.

Countries are now considering when to lift restrictions after Hayat Tahrir Al Sham led a rebel advance that ended a quarter century of rule by Mr Al Assad. Complicating the matter is HTS's designation as a terror group by the US, UN and other entities.

The US has imposed sanctions on 718 people and entities in connection to Syria, and the State Department has hinted that it could use those measures to encourage what it considers to be good behaviour from HTS and whatever governing body is formed to lead Syria.

This week, Republican Joe Wilson, the senior member of the House Middle East subcommittee, and Democratic Syria Caucus co-chairman Brendan Boyle wrote a letter to President Joe Biden's administration urging sanctions relief on Syria, saying the Assad regime's end presents a “pivotal opportunity to responsibly unwind sanctions”.

The congressmen, who have led sanctions bills such as the Assad Anti-Normalisation Act, which builds on the Caesar Act, said such measures had contributed to the collapse of the Assad regime.

A partial easing of sanctions would help Syria's stabilisation and reconstruction, and make international investment and humanitarian recovery easier. But the two stressed sanctions should remain against former regime officials.

Alberto Hernandez, who manages government relations with the Washington-based Syrian American Council, said it is “far too soon” to talk about lifting sanctions.

“We can't even say we're in a transition period. We're in a stabilisation period,” Mr Hernandez said. “People have coloured the maps of Syria all one colour, or two colours. But that's not the reality on the ground.”

His group wants to see a surge in humanitarian funding, like that after last year's devastating earthquake in Syria and Turkey. “We want to see general licences. We want to see pressure on the UN to restart the Damascus space humanitarian operations,” Mr Hernandez said.

Meanwhile in Europe, which became a destination for millions of Syrian refugees fleeing the civil war, officials are taking a cautious approach. Currently,there is no European engagement with HTS.

“Don't expect much on sanctions related to Syria, this is way too early,” an EU diplomat told The National. “The situation is still super-volatile, we need to clarify many things and, indeed, see how it will actually go on the ground. Important to co-ordinate with the countries in the region as well, they're the first concerned.”

Another diplomat highlighted the thorny issue of providing relief to HTS, which is mainly made up of groups from the former extremist organisation Jabhat Al Nusra, which was linked to Al Qaeda.

“HTS will realistically now play a role in the reorganisation of Syria, whether we like it or not,” the second diplomat said. “At the same time, it is a terrorist organisation listed by UN and EU.”

Still, the diplomat noted how HTS is aiming to distance itself from its extremist origins. “We now have to see in practice how to judge those efforts, namely in the treatment of civilians and minorities,” the source said.

Asked whether Paris could push for the lifting of sanctions on Syria, notably in the energy sector, Foreign Ministry spokesman Christophe Lemoine told reporters: “We are taking this in an orderly way, step by step.”

“We know the sanctions regime on Syria is very tough, but for now the discussions in Brussels will especially be on the position of the Europeans on the political transition. The sanctions question can come after that,” he said.

Syria analyst Aron Lund from Century International said the West might find it wisest to lift sanctions and engage with HTS sooner rather than later.

"The risk of delaying economic assistance to Syria, including sanctions relief, is that you will have a much more problematic situation, not just in Syria in general, but with HTS as well," Mr Lund said. "Everyone talks about HTS being a pragmatic group and so forth. They are, but they're pragmatic in both directions."

He said the group is trying to promote a moderate image and connect with foreign states. "The way to encourage that, I think, is to engage with them and give them a reason to open up ... If you want them to keep softening their approach or holding that line, then you need to create the conditions for that. It's sticks and it’s carrots, but it's not just sticks."

Mr Lund warned that the Syrian economy could be headed down a "black hole" if urgent action is not taken, something EU countries in particular should keep in mind.

"You want some sort of basic stability in Syria and not to have a raging humanitarian disaster on your border," he said. "Why would you want the country to collapse completely? There's no better way of ensuring refugee outflow."

Departing US Senate foreign relations committee chairman Ben Cardin said it's “too early to tell” whether Washington should shift its sanctions regime, but if HTS makes “corrections” and shows “respect for the Syrians … as with the language we hear, then it'd be totally appropriate to eliminate these sanctions".

Mr Cardin said those corrections would have to entail “people being able to speak, not being put in jail. It starts with that".

“There's a lot of things that we that we want to see done that that would be prerequisites for us to consider relief, but it's basically a government that is held accountable, that respects the rights of its citizens, that [honours] the right to be able to to peacefully demonstrate against the policies of the country,” Mr Cardin added.

One big unknown in what happens next is president-elect Donald Trump. Shortly before the Assad regime collapsed, he said the US should have “nothing to do" with Syria and he has previously tried to withdraw US troops from north-east Syria, where they are working with Kurdish forces to fight ISIS.

“I'd like to think that president Trump will see opportunity in Syria's new serious momentum towards being a peaceful and prosperous nation with leadership that respects the rights of all Syrians. Maybe Trump will say, let's give Syria a fighting chance,” said Delaney Simon, senior analyst for the US programme at the International Crisis Group.