How Donald Trump did it: Final US election results show seismic shift

Republicans' 2024 election strategy proved unconventional, polarising but incredibly effective

President-elect Donald Trump's unconventional and polarising campaign strategy worked once again. Reuters

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When Donald Trump was elected to the White House in 2016, critics and pundits were quick to note he had lost the popular vote and had won thanks to the vagaries of America's electoral college system.

Eight years later, Mr Trump swept to victory in a decisive manner, steamrollering Vice President Kamala Harris even though he ran this race as a convicted criminal who had been twice impeached. He won the electoral college vote handily and was on track to secure a comfortable popular vote victory.

Mr Trump won in large part by refining his raw political instincts and focusing on shocking, populist rhetoric that garnered him endless media attention. His bombastic and off-the-cuff style culminated in what many considered to be a xenophobic, misogynist and racist rally at New York's Madison Square Garden only days before the election.

He also exploited a wave of economic uncertainty for Americans grappling with inflation and high costs for everything from petrol to housing to health care. Despite the economy doing well at macro level, millions of Americans weren't feeling it.

Where President Joe Biden and Ms Harris struggled to articulate how their policies were improving the economy, Mr Trump, at rallies, presidential debates and on adverts, kept hammering on a promise to usher in a new economic boom. He tied his messages of economic woe under the Democrats to a claim that undocumented immigrants were taking US jobs.

For Ms Harris, a former prosecutor who was forced to run a truncated campaign after President Biden stepped aside in July, economic issues were never something she could comfortably articulate. Her messaging instead focused on Mr Trump's threats to US democracy, the January 6, 2021 insurrection and his promises to seek revenge on perceived enemies.

Donald Trump, however polarising, has managed to defy the odds by returning to the White House. AFP

While some polls showed US voters were concerned about democracy, it was not at the same level as the economy. It was only in the final weeks that the Harris campaign shifted to focus more on economic issues. By that point, however, it was too late.

Dr Peter Yacobucci, a political science professor at Buffalo State University, said the Harris campaign and the Biden campaign before it never really spoke to the economic angst of voters.

“Telling people the economy is good but not recognising that individuals are being impacted by inflation, high housing costs, etc, is tone deaf,” he said. “Democrats remain a party of elites that refuse to listen to what supporters of Trump are actually saying.”

According to data provided to The National by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican research consultancy firm, for entrenched supporters of Mr Trump there was a strong desire for the campaign to once again tap into “nostalgia for a perceived better past and a desire to return to those conditions”.

In turn, the Trump campaign often pushed he would “fix” things and lured voters with a promise of returning the US to a golden age, echoing but evolving Mr Trump’s tried and tested “Make American Great Again” message.

According to data from Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican consultancy and research firm, most Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Photo: POS strategies

Conversely, according to Public Opinion strategies, the Trump campaign’s ability to expand its base and chip away at traditionally Democratic-supporting Hispanic voters was made easier by data showing that 66 per cent of the electorate thought the country was on the wrong track.

It was a massive hurdle for Ms Harris, who struggled to clearly explain how her administration would be different from a second Biden term.

In certain female demographics, much to the surprise of many, Mr Trump made gains as well compared to , in particular white women.

Melissa Brown, a member of Republican Women for Progress, an independent grassroots organisation, spoke about how she felt Mr Trump made some inroads.

“I think a lot of voters had the economy, international issues and the rule of law on their ultimately that’s what was prioritised in the voting booth,” she said, adding that women are not simply single-issue voters.

“We’re focused on the mission to encourage those elected who are focused on governing and building a bigger tent, and delivering results for the American people.”

Also working in Mr Trump's favour was the simple fact that he never left the spotlight after losing in 2020. Thanks to the riots at the Capitol in January 6, 2021, he was the subject of years of well-publicised investigations and hearings. Court cases in New York and elsewhere gave TV pundits endless hours of easy discussion topics, while Mr Trump used his various criminal prosecutions to convince voters that the Democrats were persecuting him politically.

For better or worse, that strategy, however polarising, guided Mr Trump through tumultuous Republican primaries in 2016 and 2024, and helped propel him to the White House.

The Trump campaign also defied critics who thought his campaign events in Democrat-leaning states such as New York and Virginia were ill-advised from a strategic standpoint.

At one of his rallies in Salem, Virginia, thousands were queuing up hours before the start, prompting an overflowing crowd to watch it on a jumbo screen outside the venue.

Inside Trump rally in Virginia as campaign enters final moments

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“There were five times as many people outside,” Mr Trump exclaimed during the event.

It seemed to work. On election night, Virginia was much closer than expected, though Ms Harris still won it.

This year, his campaign leant into everything that worked in 2016 in the hope the strategy would work even better if he did everything in a grander way.

This tactic, combined with the economic anxiety and unpopular poll numbers for the Biden administration, caused Mr Trump once again to defy the odds and conventional wisdom, and even gained him popularity among traditionally Democratic-leaning constituencies, potentially creating a new Republican coalition for many years to come.