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As early Arizona election results trickled in on Tuesday evening, there was optimism among the people who spent the day knocking on voters' doors to rally support for Kamala Harris and down-ballot immigration issues.
Arizona is the only swing state on the US border with Mexico, and with nearly a million immigrants living here, the stakes in the race between Ms Harris and Donald Trump were high.
A coalition of immigration advocates, including those from other border states such as Texas and California, huddled into Phoenix's expansive Corona Ranch and Rodeo venue for a night of food, drinks, live music and dancing.
Parents played and danced with their young children, running around waving blue balloons and chanting “Si se puede” or “Yes, you can”. Cowboy hats and campaign T-shirts were worn throughout the room.
“I think that there's a lot of reasons to be a little scrambled and afraid, but I'm feeling really good. I feel really grounded,” Greisa Martinez Rosas, an undocumented activist with the US advocacy group United We Dream, told The National.
“We've been preparing for this moment for the last three years. We know what it feels like to win, and we know what it takes to win.”
But Arizona Proposition 314 passed with a significant majority among voters – almost 63 per cent support. The measure makes it a crime for non-citizens to enter the state at any location other than a port of entry, allows state and local police to arrest non-citizens who cross the border illegally, and permits state judges to order deportations.
The rise in migrant crossings has been felt strongly in Arizona, and Republican backers of the measure claim it will help to better secure the US border and block a national surge in drug trafficking.
Immigration advocates, up early on election day in their final push to talk to Maricopa County voters, said the fate of this bill would have implications across the whole US.
“The reason that we are trying to actively fight against this resolution is because I think what we're going to see … more of a turn towards state and local enforcement of anti-immigrant laws … and then we're going to see copycats around the country,” Michelle Ming, United We Dream's policy director, told The National on Tuesday.
The bill's passing, paired with a sweeping Republican mandate including control of the White House, Senate and probably the House of Representatives, will result in reliving the “trauma” experienced by immigrant and undocumented workers under the previous Trump administration.
As the reality settled in throughout the night on Tuesday, those remaining in a fast-dwindling crowd chose to look at small victories.
“What the night is looking like for me – enjoying it with my peers, my team leads, everybody that has helped us reach 600,000 doors [knocked on in this election],” watch party guest Alex told The National.
“The last few days we've done the best that we can … and whether we lose or win [tonight], we are still going to fight until we win.”
Fear and resolve also crept in. “My sister is a Daca [Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals] recipient, so this morning, she asked me, like, 'What's going to happen to me?'” Bruna Sollod told The National in the early hours on Wednesday.
“And I said to her, 'Nothing, because I'm part of a movement that will fight for you and protect you, and so nothing's going to happen to you'.”
She added, however, that “we need to prepare for mass deportation”.
Mr Trump's victory came with a significant gains among Latino voters, particularly men.
“I could talk about the white vote because I'm definitely frustrated by a lot of white women who continue to do this to us,” Ms Sollod said. “But I think there's a lot of work to be done with voters in our own communities and having tough conversations with them, and I think those are lessons to try something new.”
Arizona helped to seal a swift victory for Mr Trump, who has promised mass deportations when he re-enters the White House in January. An estimated 11 million undocumented migrants live in the US, although conservatives say the true figure may be two or three times that number.
Mr Trump said he would call on Congress to provide funding for another 10,000 border patrol agents, and has even quoted a founding-era law – the 1789 Alien Enemies Act – as a means of deporting immigrants with criminal records.
That has particular implications for Arizona. About 13 per cent of the state's residents were born in another country, and 16 per cent of residents are native-born Americans with at least one immigrant parent. One in six Arizona workers is an immigrant, according to the American Immigration Council.
“Our communities have been here for generations, they have built their whole lives here, and the impact of this election in particular will directly effect a lot of people here in Arizona,” Victor Guillen Febres, an organiser who migrated to the US from Venezuela, told The National.
“I came here looking for opportunity, for a better life. It really was a pivotal moment for me in 2016 when I started seeing a lot of anti-immigrant rhetoric and hate.”
Mr Guillen Febres is a former Temporary Protected Status holder, a programme Mr Trump slashed in his first term and could threaten in a second.
Recent data from the Department of Homeland Security, first published by Forbes, shows that up to 2.7 million people could be deported within the next two years if Mr Trump again ends TPS and other immigration protection.
“Arizona has been here before,” said Alejandra Gomez, executive director of Arizona immigration group Lucha.
Discussing the stakes of the US election in Arizona, the phrase “SB-1070” – known as the “show me your papers” law – is mentioned frequently among these mainly Latin and Hispanic-American activists.
Under that state measure, local police were allowed to demand papers and investigate the immigration status of a person suspected to be undocumented, and make arrests without warrants if they believe they are deportable immigrants.
The fear it inspired for many families in Arizona is remembered well as they prepare for another Trump term.
“Time and time again at the doors we heard the stories of the families that were separated, and once again we're living that reality again. No matter what, we know we're still going to be here, this is our home,” Ms Gomez said.
Ms Sollod said that the work begins now. “Our mandate for the next few weeks and months is to show immigrants that they are not alone, they are not going back into the shadows … we're going to fight like hell to make sure people are able to stay with their loved ones.”
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Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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