Many British cereal farmers had hoped this year would bring a better harvest than last year, but extreme heat and prolonged drought means they are set to lose nearly £5 billion ($6.77 billion) due to poor harvests in the last three years.
In compiling the figures, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit says this summer's weather has led to the worst harvest on record, with wheat and spring barley yields affected by lack of moisture and high temperatures.
Compared to the 2014-2023 average, the shortfall in production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape in 2024, 2025 and the estimated deficit for 2026 is 14.4 million tonnes. This is estimated to have cost farmers £4.8 billion in lost revenue when adjusted for inflation, according to analysis by the ECIU.
The Met Office, Britain's weather bureau, says 2026 is on course to be the hottest summer on record, talking the place of 2025. The harvest in 2024 was hit by the late winter washout of that year, as a wet autumn in 2023 followed by more wet weather in the proceeding winter and spring hit yields.
Martin Lines, a farmer from Cambridge, said his business has been devastated by bad harvests three years in a row. “As a farmer, I’m used to ironing out the bad years with the good, but three terrible harvests in a row is just devastating for my business and the farming sector as a whole,” he said.
“Anyone who thinks that climate change isn’t something to worry about needs to spend a day in a farmer’s boots, struggling to grow crops, feed livestock with no grass, or keep animals cool in a heatwave.”
He fears a wet and stormy autumn will be followed by an “even hotter summer next year”. Mr Lines added: “Our industry desperately needs politicians and the supply chain to take the threat of climate change to our food security much more seriously. We need support to reduce emissions and boost the resilience of UK food production, and can’t afford that alone while climate change is hitting our bottom line so relentlessly.”
The ECIU has forecast a deficit of 14 million tonnes of cereal and oilseed for 2024 to 2026, against the average from 2013 to 2014.
Against the 2013 to 2024 average, the deficit for each year was 4.3 million tonnes in 2024, 4.2 million in 2025 and is on course to hit 5.9 million in 2026, based on yield estimates published in the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board's second harvest report on August 14.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: “Just as Britain’s arable farmers thought 2026 might bring a better harvest, this summer’s extreme heat and relentless drought has been a terrible blow that has left farmers facing the third poor harvest in a row. Our farmers are now on the front line of climate change, which is taking a relentless toll on their ability to grow and harvest the crops we all depend upon.”
He said total lost revenue for UK farming was likely to be far greater, with vegetable growers, livestock farmers and many in the wider food-supply chain also adversely affected.
While it is possible to cut emissions by improving soil health and planting more trees to shade livestock, there are “limits to what can be done”, Mr Lancaster said. “Reaching net-zero emissions is also imperative, otherwise temperatures will simply continue to spiral upwards while our food security falls,” he added.
The National Farmers' Union recently called for interest-free loans on fertiliser purchases, as it warned the impact of extreme weather on its members' cash flow could jeopardise next year’s harvest.
“The Middle East conflict followed by one of the worst droughts on record have led to a terrible combination of high production costs and low yield, meaning many farmers will be struggling to break even, let alone make a profit,” said Paul Tompkins, NFU deputy president.
“We are facing an immediate crisis in cash flow and confidence. That’s why we’re calling for a government backed, interest-free loan, linked to the losses caused by this summer’s drought, which would give farm businesses the working capital to produce next year’s food.
“Fertiliser is a crucial component in producing much of the nation’s calories. Some breathing space and financial stability will boost confidence and hopefully help prevent a spike of late fertiliser orders, but we need action now or it will be too late,” Mr Tompkins said.
