As British Prime Minister Keir Starmer flies back from the G7 leaders’ summit in Evian on Wednesday he may well reflect on the impending loss of the privileged trappings of a national leader.
His time left in office could now be measured in days if his popular challenger Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, the most consequential in recent political history.
The early hours of Friday morning will likely show that the Manchester mayor is triumphant, proving that he is the Labour leader needed to head off Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing Reform party and could very soon he could be installed in Downing Street.
But Mr Starmer continued his rearguard fight on Wednesday by declaring that Mr Burnham could “play a big part” in government in a signal that he would invite him to join the cabinet.
“Andy is a great asset and, yes, I want him to have a big role in government,” he told reporters in France. Asked if he would call Mr Burnham at the weekend and invite him to join the cabinet if he wins in Makerfield, the Prime Minister said: “Well, I’m sure I’ll talk to Andy after the weekend.”
However, there is a growing consensus that Mr Starmer will be given just the weekend to consider his position either to resign and allow a “coronation” for Mr Burnham or to fight on and face a potential cabinet revolt.
His position in Evian was the latter. “I don’t think there should be a challenge,” he stated, then refering to previous Conservative leadership battles said: “I think history, particularly the last government, shows that that isn’t a successful way for a government to behave. But if there is a challenge, then I intend to fight.”
While his fighting talk is to be expected, much will depend on the size of Mr Burnham’s win in Makerfield, with his credentials undermined if he just scrapes through.
Polling shows that his margin of victory could be between 5 and 12 per cent with victory expected over Reform’s candidate, something that would be a major shift in an area where Nigel Farage’s party just voted out all but one of its 26 Labour councillors in last month’s local election.
If he fails to win then that will inevitably trigger a leadership contest with several figures on hand to make a bid.
Former health secretary Wes Streeting has already signalled that he has the 80 Labour MPs needed to trigger a leadership contest that could well see other figures join such as former deputy leader Angela Rayner and even Al Carns, the defence minister who resigned last week over under-funding of the armed forces alongside his boss John Healey.
Those resignations almost certainly sealed Mr Starmer’s fate, which is extraordinary after winning a huge majority of MPs in 2024.
Much will depend on how his cabinet colleagues react to Makerfield, with several already reported to have made soundings to Mr Burnham to keep their posts. Some have allegedly already asked the prime minister to set out a timetable for his departure.
It is also understood that Mr Burnham is planning to deliver a private ultimatum to him over the weekend and a crucial date will be next Tuesday’s cabinet meeting where Mr Starmer could face a revolt.
As the police escorts whisk him away from the lakeside idyll on Lake Geneva, Britain’s latest prime minister will almost certainly reflect on the power and privilege that has slipped through his fingers.
