Britain's most consequential by-election could precipitate a new prime minister - or smash the established two-party system. Getty
Britain's most consequential by-election could precipitate a new prime minister - or smash the established two-party system. Getty
Britain's most consequential by-election could precipitate a new prime minister - or smash the established two-party system. Getty
Britain's most consequential by-election could precipitate a new prime minister - or smash the established two-party system. Getty

The kingmakers of Makerfield: how 76,000 voters hold the future of British politics on their ballot papers

For the former miners of Makerfield, the challenge was digging coal more than a kilometre underground in thick dust and 30°C heat knowing at any moment the roof could collapse or undetected gases ignite an inferno.

The work was hard and dangerous – 10 died in 1979 near Golborne following a gas explosion – but miners were well paid in an era where the political realities above ground was a simple choice between two parties: Labour or Conservative.

In an era in which the mines are long closed, the febrile and toxic atmosphere has moved above ground in the northern town, officially Ashton-in-Makerfield, that will next Thursday host the most consequential by-election in British history.

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. Getty
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. Getty

Standing for Labour is Andy Burnham who, if he wins, will prove that under his leadership his party can see off the populist right-wing insurgency of Nigel Farage’s Reform.

That could well see him replace the premiership of Keir Starmer which looks to in its last throes following the resignation of the respected Defence Secretary John Healey on Thursday over a shortfall in spending.

If Mr Burnham fails to get elected, then Mr Farage will continue his anti-immigration fuelled drive to Downing Street with the century-old two-party grip of Labour and Conservative conclusively ended.

For the 76,000 voters of Makerfield this has presented a unique opportunity to vote in the UK’s next leader or to destroy the two-party state.

Downing Street beckons

If after the count in the early hours of Friday, Mr Burnham is successful then he will march on Westminster and the man nicknamed “King of the North” could very soon face a coronation in Downing Street. “Andy is really the last roll of the dice for Labour,” a veteran party member said.

Britain's Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon. Reuters
Britain's Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon. Reuters

Tory for Labour

But before then he must convince Makerfield that he will stand for them foremost then change the country’s fortunes later.

Labour is taking nothing for granted with the race considered tight with one poll showing him on 43 per cent, three points ahead of his Reform rival Robert Kenyon, a controversial choice given a string of sexist online comments.

While Mr Burnham has strong local credentials – he lives just two miles from the constituency and his three children were educated in it – observers say that no other Labour candidate would win in Makerfield, especially given the trouncing it suffered in the May local election, losing nearly all its councillors as Reform triumphed with 50 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 22 per cent.

Mr Burnham, a Cambridge graduate, is seen as down-to-earth and experienced in government, serving not only in cabinet, including as health secretary, but also with an accomplished run as Manchester mayor since 2017 when he quit as an MP, although he did receive a gifted inheritance.

He will be helped too by those in Makerfield who want to keep Reform out at all costs, such as Mark Davis, who normally votes Conservative but has already sent in his postal vote for Burnham.

“It’s a tactical vote really. I don't want Reform and quite a few people are worried about the far-right sneaking in.”

He also revealed a thought that many in Makerfield have experienced in that they have the unique chance of directly voting in the next prime minister. “We won’t ever get this chance again.”

Thus the future of Britain is being decided in a small patch of north-west England outside Manchester, a prospect that has attracted international attention with media from Japan, America and Denmark.

St George's flags in Ashton-in-Makerfield. Getty
St George's flags in Ashton-in-Makerfield. Getty

King makers

So how did we get to this place? Brexit can in part be blamed for unleashing forces of economic pain and toxic polarisation on Britain a decade ago, creating the instability of near-annual exits from Downing Street.

It’s latest occupant, Keir Starmer, has become the most unpopular prime minister, bar the short tenure of Liz Truss, by failing to show political leadership while being dictated to by party factions despite a massive majority. That was clearly in evidence over his defence secretary’s resignation.

Last month, he was on the cusp of being ousted in a widely touted leadership challenge that was put in abeyance after a Burnham-supporting MP resigned his Makerfield seat to open the way for the Manchester mayor’s return to parliament. Given events over the nation’s defence, the stakes for that have become much higher.

But there is an opportunity too for those who want to land a punch on Labour and the Westminster establishment by voting Reform.

Vinyl record shop owner Pete Thompson, 78, has veered from voting Labour to Conservative and now Reform because the two established parties “have made a mess of this country…it is broken and it’s times for a change”.

He warns too that while Makerfield could be the king makers “I look at it a different way, we could destroy a king as well”. Then in reference to Mr Burnham’s nickname for standing up for Manchester during Covid, he added “And I mean slaying the King of the North”.

Marcin Wysocki, a Makerfield voter. Thomas Harding / The National
Marcin Wysocki, a Makerfield voter. Thomas Harding / The National

Migrant Britain

Mr Burnham leads the polls but an unknown is what impact this month’s anti-immigration riots in Belfast and Southampton will have.

Given Reform’s recent dominance “I think the Farage lot will come through,” said a 76-year-old pensioner. “Immigration plays a big part in people's minds. That's why a lot of people around here voted to leave the EU so we could control our own borders.”

That anger is reflected by Marcin Wysocki, originally from Poland, who is vacillating between Reform and the even more extreme Restore Britain party, but certainly wants “the illegal people” removed.

“We pay our taxes for them and then you look at where they come from – Afghanistan, where is no war," said the sandwich shop owner.

But there are Labour stalwarts too, such as Mary Marsden who thinks Mr Burnham “will do a good job” but spares a thought for Keir Starmer “who stopped us having a war with Iran where we could have been up to our necks in it”.

Brexit complex

The Makerfield election comes a week before Britain reaches the 10-year landmark of the seismic Brexit vote to leave the European Union. The constituency is 97 per cent white and one per cent Muslim, with 65 per cent voting for Brexit, which means for now Mr Burnham is curtailing his pro-Europe position.

But there is talk that a Burnham premiership will move the UK much closer to Europe and if he can find a way through its complexities “to speak to the country united”, said Labour’s leading policy strategist, former MP Jon Cruddas.

“That's why it's probably the most significant by-election we've ever had, in terms of its implications, not just of him becoming prime minister, but whether he is seen as an antidote to a lot of these forces that have disfigured our country for the last ten years,” he added.

Restore Britain banner in Makerfield. AFP
Restore Britain banner in Makerfield. AFP

Restore the far-right

Those forces have propelled the sudden emergence of the hard-right Restore Britain that urges mass deportations of migrants alongside Islamophobic policies such as banning the burqa and niqab as well as halal animal slaughter.

The party is led by Rupert Lowe, who quit as a Reform MP after falling out with Mr Farage, and its younger mainly white supporters in Makerfield, sporting black T-shirts and baseball caps with the Restore logo were in strong evidence.

Their presence suggests a fracturing of the UK’s far right – that could well benefit Mr Burnham by splitting the vote – with Mr Lowe’s acolytes advancing a strong betrayal narrative. “I would have taken a bullet for Nigel but not now,” one muscled supporter told The National. “He’s just a Tory in Reform clothing.”

Sean Rodders, an ex-miner in Makerfield. Thomas Harding / The National
Sean Rodders, an ex-miner in Makerfield. Thomas Harding / The National

Minds made up

If he is elected and then becomes prime minister, Mr Burnham faces an electorate no longer wedded to the two traditional parties and their desperation for change is pushing them to more extreme parties.

If he is to succeed that will mean changing the minds of people like former miner and Labour voter Sean Rodders.

“Labour and Conservatives between them have destroyed everything,” he said. “Reform’s man is the only bloke who speaks for the working class now.”

There is a toughness and resolution in a man who worked at the coalface deep below the earth at great personal risk that will need heavy lifting to undo. What would bring him back to Labour? “Nothing, nothing. They tell too many lies.”

Updated: June 12, 2026, 6:00 PM