Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is the clear favourite to become British Labour leader, with nearly six in 10 party members saying they would support him over Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a leadership contest, according to a YouGov poll.
In a blow to Mr Starmer's government, only 37 per cent of the 706 members surveyed said they would stick with the Prime Minister.
A conclusion from the survey was that Mr Starmer would be likely to beat any opponent in a leadership contest except Mr Burnham, making next month's Makerfield by-election, in which Mr Burnham is standing to return to parliament, a key moment in British politics.
In a campaign video, Mr Burnham said his attempt to win Makerfield was motivated by the need to “change Labour”.
In the video, accompanied by the music of Manchester bands including Elbow, James and Oasis, Mr Burnham said he wanted “a new path for Britain”.
The by-election was triggered by former minister Josh Simons standing aside for Mr Burnham's Westminster run.
If Mr Burnham fails to beat the Reform candidate, whose party swept the board in Makerfield’s local council elections this month, then Mr Starmer would almost certainly remain prime minister, the YouGov survey showed.
Mr Starmer would comfortably defeat former health secretary Wes Streeting in a head-to-head (65 to 15 per cent), and a majority (56 per cent) want to see him stand in any contest. It also appears Mr Starmer would have a good chance of beating former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, should she stand, and that he would comfortably beat any other contenders.
Mr Starmer is behind Mr Burnham in every scenario that matters. In a head-to-head, Mr Burnham leads by 59 per cent to 37 per cent, highlighting the extent of the challenge Mr Starmer faces if a contest were called in which Labour’s estimated 250,000 membership vote.
But political analyst Catherine Haddon said there was a risk that Labour members viewed Mr Burnham as if “he fixes everything”.
“Even if he wins, it's not that easy to just come in and fix government,” she told an Institute for Government think tank online seminar. “The expectation management that Andy Burnham is facing is massive and it's going to be a huge problem for him.”
Given the global impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, she told the briefing, titled Chaos Returns to Westminster, that Mr Burnham might not even want to immediately trigger a leadership contest, which would need the support of 81 MPs.
“We are potentially on the cusp of a major crisis as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to knock-on effects, not just on aviation fuel and petrol pumps, but on a whole range of other things. So, we could end up finding ourselves in crisis. Does Andy Burnham really want to launch a leadership crisis then?”
The YouGov findings also reveal a contradiction in party sentiment. While 66 per cent of members believe Mr Starmer has done a good job as prime minister and 80 per cent rate Labour’s overall performance in government positively, only 28 per cent think the party will win the next general election with Mr Starmer as leader. By contrast, 74 per cent believe Labour could win if Mr Burnham led the party.
The survey also suggests that the party membership broadly supports a competitive leadership process. More than half said Mr Starmer should stand in any contest, with 36 per cent calling for him to step aside.
Meanwhile, a third of members want him to resign sooner rather than later, signalling pressure for a leadership challenge soon after the June 18 by-election - if Mr Burnham succeeds.
