With pressure growing on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign following local election losses, one of the questions raised is whether a new Labour leader would take a more hostile position against the US if it resumes attacks on Iran.
Mr Starmer has so far refused to step down after Labour lost a large number of English council seats to the right-wing English nationalist populist party Reform and left-wing Greens. Anti-war sentiment and rising energy prices appeared to split the Labour vote.
But it is still possible that he could bow to pressure on MPs.
A new Labour leader was unlikely to shift the government's position on Iran but could be “slightly” more critical of Israel, according to Chris Doyle, of the Council of Arab British Understanding.
“There is unlikely to be a change of position on Iran. It was broadly seen among Labour MPs and the country as a right decision not to join in. I don’t see a mood to alter that position,” he told The National.
The UK allowed the US to use its airbases in the Middle East to protect Gulf allies who came under attack from Tehran after US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
But Mr Starmer said his government would not be drawn into the war and has instead sought a coalition to protect international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
This strained the UK's relationship with the Trump administration – but was widely approved by the British public. “There is consensus that Starmer got it right,” Mr Doyle said.
While Mr Starmer has taken strong foreign policy positions including on Ukraine and the recognition of Palestine, there are concerns that contenders would not have the same track record on world affairs.
Contenders such as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner are to the left of the party, raising prospects that a new leader could a take more openly hostile stance to the resumption of US strikes on Iran.
Mr Doyle said any future leader would seize the “chance to reset” the relationship with Mr Trump, but without compromising on the UK's position. “It wouldn't be at the cost of joining the resumption of war,” he said.
Ipsos polling in March found a majority of voters of Labour (67 per cent), Conservative (52 per cent), Liberal Democrat (69 per cent) and other parties (76 per cent) in 2024 disapproved of US military strikes on Iran, but while more than half of Reform UK 2024 voters approve of US strikes (53 per cent).
One option for potential contenders would be to pursue greater links with the EU, as Mr Starmer has done, in a bid to win voter's back, Mr Doyle said.
It is possible that a new leader would adopt a “slightly more critical position” to Israel, with the option of imposing further sanctions on Israeli settlers in line with the EU’s decision this week, he said.
Mr Starmer’s initial support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza in the months following the October 7 Hamas attacks triggered backlash from Labour supporters, in particular the party’s Muslim voters.
The Gaza issue proved persistent in this month’s local elections, with the Greens and pro-Gaza independents securing more votes.
But while Israel-Palestine is viewed by experts as the catalyst for the move away from Labour, it is not the sole reason for left wing frustrations with the party.
“It won’t be one issue that buys voters back. You have to establish a new mood of optimism. People want real change,” Mr Doyle said. “Whoever leads will have to address economic issues, where there are huge challenges.”
Hormuz fallout
Labour’s core members, who elect the leader, were found to hold stronger views on taxation and public spending than non-members who voted for the party at the 2024 general election.
In a survey of Labour members conducted just after those elections, 89 per cent said they favoured an increase in taxes and public spending. There was significantly less support for this (63 per cent) among Labour voters who were not members of the party, and the general public’s average of 50 per cent.
A lower proportion of Labour members (11 per cent) believed the country needed a strong leader prepared to break the rules, by contrast to Reform members (62 per cent), according to the survey by Tim Bale, Paul Webb and Stavroula Chrona.
