The 20-point peace plan for Gaza is behind schedule and at serious risk of collapse due to the wider Middle East war, an expert has warned.
Hiba Qasas, a conflict mediator based in Switzerland but originally from the West Bank, warned that progress has stalled because the US is preoccupied by the war with Iran.
Ms Qasas, the founding executive director of the Geneva-based Principles for Peace Foundation, is trying to keep the 20-point Gaza peace plan alive.
It was announced in September by the US President Donald Trump, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The plan came into force the following month and was endorsed by the UN Security Council in November.
The first phase was a ceasefire, but the second phase, announced by US special envoy Steve Witkoff on January 14, was more challenging.
Its objectives include reconstruction of the enclave; the disarming of Hamas; the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza; and the establishment of a technocratic government in the enclave. With US attention focused elsewhere in the region, little progress has been made.
Ms Qasas recently briefed the UN Security Council and last month visited London, where she urged the British government to pay closer attention to Gaza and the West Bank.
She believes the complete lack of progress on the second phase of the peace plan serves to strengthen Hamas and weaken the transitional administration, which remains stuck in Egypt and cannot get into Gaza.
“They need progress on disarmament and stabilisation, and none of that is happening right now because everything is on hold and the attention of the US is elsewhere,” Ms Qasas told The National. “It could create further entrenchment of Hamas position.”
Without progress in Gaza, and with continuing Israeli escalations in the West Bank, the peace plan is at risk of collapsing, she warned. That would “mean further destabilising factors in the region”.
She said “everything is behind schedule” and warned that the delay “could create further vacuums”.
Members of the transitional administration are still in Egypt waiting to enter Gaza, Ms Qasas said. “The crossings are not open. The humanitarian response is stalled.”
Hamas is under pressure to sign a disarmament deal, but says it will not do so unless Israel withdraws from Gaza.
The head of the plan’s Board of Peace, the Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov, last week called on the UN Security Council to put pressure on Hamas.
“I ask the council members to use all means at their disposal to urge Hamas and all Palestinian factions to accept this framework without delay,” he said.
“Every hour, every day wasted, carries a human cost and further erodes the process for credible and lasting peace. The laying down of arms by militant groups would represent a decisive break from cycles of violence that have defined life in Gaza for decades.”
Israel has been restricting attempts to make progress on reconstruction as long as Hamas refuses to disarm, creating paralysis. The creation of a Palestinian police force has also stalled.
The delays have been compounded by the escalating situation in the occupied West Bank, where settler expansion is continuing and the Palestinian Authority is at risk of potential collapse. “There are real pogroms happening in the West Bank, with the burning of houses,” Ms Qasas said.
Alliance of the willing
Although the UK has been widely criticised for its response to the Israel-Gaza war, Ms Qasas believes it can help put the Palestinian issue back on the agenda by bringing Gulf states and Europeans together.
“The way to go is an alliance of the willing that can engage constructively to advance President Trump's plan and keep the political horizon alive,” she said. “I think the UK has an opportunity to play a leading role in such an alliance.”
But its peace-building project, the Israel-Palestine Peace Fund, was postponed for a second time in March due to the outbreak of the US-Iran war.
The UK has also pitched to lead on the demilitarisation of Hamas, drawing on the experience of disarming the IRA as part of the Good Friday Agreement.
‘Pragmatic peace'
Ms Qasas has built a coalition of war-weary former ministers, mediators and business leaders in Israel and Palestine who are looking to take things forward while acknowledging the obstacles.
This includes recognition that Palestinian lands are under Israeli occupation, but also that Israelis have a “real sense of fear” for their security.
The coalition, called United for a Shared Future, has more than 550 members. It includes the J Street founder Nadav Tamir, Israeli politicians from the centre and centre-left and Palestine Liberation Organisation members who are frustrated with the Palestinian Authority.
What brings them together is the belief that the current imbalance of power, which evolved out of the Oslo Accords, is not sustainable. “We recognise that the bilateral track between Israelis and Palestinians is dead,” said Ms Qasas, who acknowledges “the sense of existential threat both people feel”.
Many members of the coalition prefer not to be named, Ms Qasas said. “I cannot tell you how hard it's been to go public with this. Many in our coalition are not ready.”
Another major problem for the Gaza peace plan, according to Ms Qasas, is that “right now, the UN is nowhere to be seen there”.
