Ukraine is suffering significant losses of ground along its front line, with Russia seizing territory half the size of London this month.
After a largely static war for the past two years, Ukraine is now conceding an average of 22 square kilometres a day, with Russia advancing at its fastest rate since March 2022.
Across the 1,000km front line, Ukraine is coming under intense pressure, with the threat of its troops being encircled and destroyed and Russian President Vladimir Putin seemingly intent on big gains before Donald Trump resumes office in the White House.
Britain's head of the MI6 secret intelligence service made an unusual intervention on Friday by raising the possibility of a breakdown in US-European relations if Mr Trump withdraws Washington's huge military support for Ukraine.
“The cost of supporting Ukraine is well known but the cost of not doing so would be infinitely higher,” said Richard Moore.
“If Putin is allowed to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state, he will not stop there,” he added in a speech in Paris. “Our security – British, French, European and transatlantic – will be jeopardised.”
About 700 square kilometres of Ukraine has been taken since November – an area the size of metropolitan Bangkok - but the price Moscow is paying in troop and equipment losses is very high, suffering an estimated 1,500 casualties a day.
That exceptional rate, which Russia has sustained since early autumn, is likely to be possible for only another four weeks before the offensive culminates, experts say.
‘Significantly quicker’
Analysis by the Institute of Study of War (ISW) think tank found in the three weeks from November 1, Russia had gained 574 square kilometres.
It noted that the front line in the Donetsk region was “becoming increasingly fluid”, as Russian forces were “advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023”.
Russia’s advantage had reached a “tipping point” in its superiority in firepower and troop numbers, including 10,000 North Koreans drafted in to assist, Sam Cranny-Evans, of Rusi think tank, told The National.
“It means that the Russians can steadily take territory, causing attrition to Ukraine’s armed forces while depleting their ability to defend when there are no good replacements available,” he said.
But the “worst-case scenario” of Moscow's armour bearing down on the capital Kyiv was unlikely, as Russia is likely to “take a few tens of kilometres a week until they run out of steam”, in the next month, he added.
Trump push
Key to Mr Putin’s pre-Trump strategy was to retake the remaining 600 square kilometres of Russian land in Kursk seized by Ukraine in August, that Kyiv is keen to retain as a bargaining chip in any territorial exchange.
“The big issue for Putin is that Ukraine has a bit of Russia and that is a hell of a trade in negotiations,” said former British army officer Col Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
He said the recent increased tempo may be because the Kremlin believes Mr Trump will not deliver the kind of bargain anticipated, with signals from the US suggesting Ukraine might retain its strong backing to assist in any negotiations.
“That is potentially why the Russians are putting in a hell of a shift,” said the former tank commander. “Why they are absolutely going ‘all-in’, throwing the kitchen sink at Ukraine, although only making gains at a tremendous cost.”
While Mr Trump has said he would end the war in "one day", analysts believe this was mere election rhetoric. Mr Moore’s remarks are part of a European effort to convince the incoming US administration to maintain western backing for Kyiv.
Cruel war
But the territorial gains are still causing consternation among the Ukrainian military, with parts of its front line succumbing and the possibility of troops being encircled, the ISW says.
“Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances,” it said, “advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication.”
The success had come about “largely as the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s lines”, it added.
While Ukraine struggles to man its army, those trained and waiting to enter combat were given a grim warning of what they might face by the country’s former armed forces commander last week.
“Remember that war becomes more cruel every day,” Gen Valeriy Zaluzhny told Ukrainian troops training in Britain. “It leaves almost no chance of survival. Learn not to be afraid of death, not to be afraid to look the enemy in the eye.”
Armoured manoeuvre
Those soldiers will be grateful that Moscow’s massive loss of armour – an estimated 3,000 tanks since 2022, the equivalent of its entire prewar active inventory – and experienced troops means it will struggle to exploit its tactical successes.
“Russian advances … do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian front line,” ISW said.
Col de Bretton-Gordon argued that “if Putin had a couple of armoured divisions we would be far more worried” but Russian did not seem to have a mobile reserve.
“When you get a breakthrough, you want to exploit it with rapid armoured manoeuvre by trained and experienced people but Putin’s putting barely trained people into the front.”
Big country
Given the vast size of Ukraine – its land mass is nearly three times bigger than Saudi Arabia’s – Russia will struggle to threaten its major urban areas, although the city of Zaporizhzhia could be vulnerable in the current offensive.
However, Russia would need to seize another 8,000 square kilometres if it is to take all of the Donetsk region, which would take a year even at its current increased rate of advancement.
“I don’t see a total [Ukraine] collapse and T-90 tanks galloping towards the big cities,” said Col de Bretton-Gordon. “But Ukraine is losing a lot of land.”
He and other analysts highlight the vast financial cost of the war, with Russia now spending 32 per cent of its government budget on defence and inflation running at 8 per cent.
“There is a lot of talk about the Russian economy absolutely tanking,” he said. “Putin can’t maintain his war at this level without the economy going down the drain.”
