With her reputation battered, can 49-day prime minister Liz Truss win another term as MP?

The former PM could face a battle to retain her South West Norfolk seat in a traditionally safe Conservative area

Liz Truss canvassing in her constituency in Norfolk in 2010. Getty Images

With a healthy majority in her South West Norfolk parliamentary constituency at the last general election, Liz Truss should – in theory – be set for an easy win when the UK goes to the polls on July 4.

Yet with the turbulence of her 49-day spell as prime minister in late 2022 still fresh in the memory, and with a right-leaning independent candidate running against her, Ms Truss may be facing a fight to simply remain as an MP. The Conservative party she still wishes to represent is on course for defeat and her successor Rishi Sunak's early campaigning has fallen flat.

She even faces calls to be deselected as a candidate over her appearance on a platform founded by a “far-right” commentator who holds “despicable views about violence against women”.

Jess Phillips, the former shadow minister for domestic violence and safeguarding, has written to the Prime Minister to criticise the interview, which was to promote Ms Truss's book, Ten Years To Save The West.

In Downham Market, a picturesque small town in the constituency, on the edge of the flat, low-lying Fens agricultural region, even some residents who would normally happily vote for the Conservatives are adamant that they will not mark an X next to Ms Truss's name on polling day.

Max Wiseman, a 34-year-old chartered surveyor from the village of Northwold, describes himself as “Tory for sure”, yet even he said it was “game over” for the 48-year-old MP, who has represented South West Norfolk since 2010.

“I reckon she should call it a day, to be honest,” he said. “I just think all of her policies, they weren’t well received and I think seeing her in the media since her tenure, she’s so naive. I don’t think she genuinely thinks she did anything wrong.”

Mr Wiseman said he would probably vote for the independent running against Ms Truss, a 71-year-old retired barrister and solicitor called James Bagge.

Max Wiseman, a Conservative voter from South West Norfolk who will not be supporting Liz Truss. Daniel Bardsley / The National

Mr Bagge branded Ms Truss’s time in 10 Downing Street as “catastrophic” and said that she “shows no genuine interest in the affairs of this constituency” and instead continues “to have political ambitions here in the UK and abroad”.

“I’m best placed, frankly, to usurp Liz Truss,” he said. “Most people vote Conservative here, but they don’t want to vote for Liz Truss. I’m sufficiently confident there are enough of them who will vote for me given the antipathy towards her and party politics generally.”

Despite her battered reputation, and the fact that the Conservative Party are down around 20 percentage points to the Labour Party in national polls, Ms Truss might prove tough to dislodge.

Downham Market, a small town in the South West Norfolk parliamentary constituency. Daniel Bardsley / The National

In the 2019 election, she secured 69 per cent of the vote in South West Norfolk, while the second-placed candidate, representing Labour, attracted just 18 per cent.

Also, while it is not unusual for independent candidates to achieve success in UK local elections, it has often been tougher for them to secure parliamentary seats.

Writing on Facebook after the election was announced, Ms Truss insisted that she had a “proven history of delivering results for South West Norfolk”, citing the establishment of a banking hub in Downham Market and the securing of £20 million (Dh93.36 million) in regeneration funds for a nearby town, Thetford, as among her achievements.

“I am running on my record of standing up for the residents of South West Norfolk over the past 14 years,” she wrote.

Since resigning as prime minister, Ms Truss has published her book and has hit the international lecture circuit.

Dr Matt Beech, director of the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull, said Ms Truss was “still relatively young” and may hope to retain influence with the Conservative Party.

“When the Conservatives get back into government, she would be seen as an elder stateswoman,” he said. “At the moment, it’s still quite fresh, when she was in office for a very short time.”

James Bagge, who is standing as an independent candidate against Liz Truss. Daniel Bardsley / The National

While Ms Truss is looking to remain in politics, the chancellor who she sacked after a mere 38 days in office, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced in February that he would be standing down from parliament. More than 75 other Conservative MPs are doing the same.

It was Mr Kwarteng’s badly received September 2022 “mini-budget”, often described as containing £45 billion (Dh210.05 million) of unfunded tax cuts, that ultimately precipitated Ms Truss’s downfall.

After such a disastrous spell in office, in the UK she is now “something of a figure of fun”, according to Prof Alan Finlayson, professor of political and social theory at the University of East Anglia in the nearby city of Norwich.

She’s not really proven herself as an international heavyweight

Prof Alan Finlayson

“She’s not really proven herself as an international heavyweight. She’s not a great speaker,” he said. “Maybe she does hold a hope to return to frontline politics or be a kingmaker.”

If Ms Truss continues to harbour political ambitions, she can probably only achieve them if she wins South West Norfolk again in July. Will her local record be enough to secure her another term as an MP?

Prof Finlayson said that if her campaign goes smoothly, her chances of re-election are fairly good, at 70:30 in her favour.

But if Mr Bagge succeeds in attracting voters who would normally support the Conservatives, “the anti-Truss vote could align against her”.

Liz Truss through the years – in pictures

British Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation, outside No 10 Downing Street, London. AP

Liz Truss during Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons in London, addressing Parliament for the first time since abandoning her disastrous tax-slashing economic policies. AFP

Liz Truss walks off stage after delivering her keynote speech at the Conservative Party annual conference at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham in October. PA

Liz Truss meets US President Joe Biden during the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. AP

King Charles during his first audience in September with Ms Truss at Buckingham Palace, London, following the death of Queen Elizabeth. Getty Images

Labour leader Keir Starmer and Liz Truss pay their respects after the service and procession for the coffin of Queen Elizabeth II into Westminster Hall, London, in September. PA

Ms Truss is welcomed by staff in Downing Street as she enters the famous prime ministerial offices for the first time in September. Photo: Andrew Parsons / No 10 Downing Street

Queen Elizabeth II greets the newly elected leader of the Conservative Party, Ms Truss, at Balmoral Castle in Scotland in September. The queen invited Ms Truss to become prime minister and form a new government. Getty Images

New Conservative Party leader and Britain's Prime Minister-elect Liz Truss delivers a speech after being announced the winner of the Tory Party leadership contest in central London on September 5, 2022. Ms Truss is the UK's third female prime minister following Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher. AFP

Liz Truss meets supporters as she arrives to attend a Conservative leadership election hustings at the NEC, Birmingham, in August. AP

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss take part in the BBC Leadership debate at Victoria Hall in Hanley in July. Getty Images

Liz Truss playing pool during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London in August 2022. PA

Boris Johnson and Ms Truss arriving for an extraordinary summit at Nato headquarters in Brussels, in March 2022. AFP

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ms Truss arrive for talks in Moscow in February 2022. AP

Ms Truss in Red Square during a visit to Moscow in February 2022. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Ms Truss meeting European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic (not seen) for talks in central London on the Northern Ireland Protocol on 11th February 2022. PA

Ms Truss with Marise Payne, the Australian minister of foreign affairs, at Government House in Sydney, Australia, in January 2022. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Liz Truss hosts Vice President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic at Chevening House in January 2022 to discuss the Northern Ireland protocol. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Ms Truss visits British troops in Estonia as they operate alongside other Nato troops in Tapa in November 2021. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Liz Truss walks through the old town in Tallinn, Estonia, in November 2021. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Ms Truss greeting Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, in November 2021. PA

Ms Truss at the Red Fort in New Delhi during a trip to India in October 2021. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

The British foreign secretary on the Plaza de la Constitucion in Mexico City, during a trip to Mexico in September 2021. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Queen Elizabeth II greeting Ms Truss at a reception for international business and investment leaders at Windsor Castle in October 2021. PA

Liz Truss with Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, in New York, in September 2021. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Ms Truss on a morning jog over Brooklyn Bridge in New York in September 2021. Photo: No. 10, Downing Street

Former Chancellor Philip Hammond, centre, holding his red ministerial box outside 11, Downing Street, flanked by Treasury colleagues Ms Truss and Mel Stride in October 2018. PA

Ms Truss, then secretary of state for justice, being escorted around HMP Brixton by prison governor David Bamford in November 2016. PA

Ms Truss as she became the first woman ever to hold the role of Lord Chancellor, arriving at the Royal Courts of Justice before being installed in July 2016. PA

In April 2016, the former environment secretary Liz Truss listening to former chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne (not seen) during his speech at the National Composites Centre in Bristol. PA

When she was environment minister, Ms Truss visited the bridge over the River Wharfe in Tadcaster, which collapsed after heavy flooding in December 2015. Getty Images

Addressing the Conservative party conference in Birmingham in 2014 when she was secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs. Getty Images

Mr Truss on the Sawnnington Farm to Fork stand at the Norfolk Food Festival at the Houses Of Parliament in October 2011. PA

Conservative Parliamentary candidate for South-West Norfolk Elizabeth Truss, while canvassing in the village of West Walton during the 2010 General Election campaign. PA

The former Conservative Shadow Home Secretary, Dominic Grieve, centre, speaking at the launch Reform's Lawful Society report on the nature of crime and the incentives in the criminal justice system while Ms Truss looks on, in September 2008. PA

Former Conservative Leader William Hague meeting conservative candidate for Calder valley Ms Truss, during the General Election Campaign for 2005. PA

“If there’s an organised on and offline vote against Truss, her chances drop dramatically,” Prof Finlayson said.

While not tending to be a Conservative voter in the past, one person still prepared to listen to what Truss has to say is Julie Barrow, 45, a town planner from Wimbotsham, just north of Downham Market.

“I think she deserves the chance to demonstrate to us she can truly represent us and make a change,” she said.

Another South West Norfolk resident, Lawrence Matthews, 60, a recently retired manufacturing supervisor from Downham Market who normally votes Labour, said he thought Ms Truss was “quite popular” locally.

“She does put her face in occasionally, to be fair,” he said. “There’s probably still enough [Conservatives] to put her back in.”