Countries are stepping up emergency planning amid geopolitical tensions, rising urbanisation and increasingly severe weather, a disaster risk expert has said.
Niels Holm-Nielsen, practice manager of the World Bank-managed Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), said rich and poor states alike were trying to shield themselves from “potential future shocks”, particularly natural hazards.
Demographic change and rapid urbanisation are amplifying the impact of natural disasters, with many cities expanding faster than infrastructure and government systems can cope, Mr Holm-Nielsen told The National on the sidelines of the Murona Forum in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.
“Now we live in geopolitical moments where disasters materialise more frequently, and we are seeing a growing interest from countries around the world to improve their emergency management capacity, both from a planning and financial point of view,” he said. “That’s all countries.”
How many disasters can we expect?
The UN projects the number of disaster events will reach 560 a year – or more than 1.5 a day – by 2030.
In low-income and middle-income countries, investing in more resilient infrastructure yields $4 in benefits for every $1 invested, and only 24 hours’ warning of a coming storm or heatwave can reduce damage by 30 per cent.
The GFDRR works with governments to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change, providing financial support for technical assistance and expertise.
A major part of its work is focused on Africa, where countries are urbanising rapidly and increasingly experiencing floods in built-up areas that they are ill-equipped to manage.
Focus on Africa
Africa is urbanising more rapidly than any other part of the planet. By 2050, its urban population is expected to triple to 1.3 billion, according to several projections. But many people still live in informal settlements, often built on floodplains and in other high-risk areas, leaving them vulnerable to extreme weather.
“We’re starting to see many places in Africa experiencing flooding that they didn’t used to have problems with,” said Mr Holm-Nielsen. “They have not built the institutional capacity to deal with it and that drives part of the interest in engaging with us.”
Once disasters strike major cities, governments have to act, he added. “Once all of Lagos is flooded, then Nigeria becomes interested in avoiding the floods again.”
Mr Holm-Nielsen said a data-driven understanding of risk was important to countries' preparation. The GFDRR helps governments model emergency scenarios and estimate the economic costs of disasters such as earthquakes or cyclones.
“Bringing that kind of data into their thinking helps governments decide what level of preparedness they are willing or able to afford, and how to think about financial preparedness as part of that process,” he said.
This analysis can inform decisions on staffing levels, inter-agency co-operation and who declares a state of emergency.
“These are legal decisions countries need to make but some haven’t,” he said. “Many inherited legal structures from former colonial powers and have not updated them to reflect the reality they now live in.”
What have we learnt?
Mr Holm-Nielsen said the Covid-19 pandemic exposed how unprepared countries were for a global emergency, despite improvements in information-sharing and resources.
“All countries, whether rich or poor, were basically freestyling,” he said. Nations with recent experience of Ebola outbreaks were among the few exceptions.
He warned that institutional memory could fade quickly if lessons were not learnt and incorporated into planning. “The people who develop protocols move on to other jobs, and without proper structures, that knowledge disappears with them.”
Turning to the role of artificial intelligence, Mr Holm-Nielsen said his organisation relies on processing vast amounts of data, and AI allows this to be done efficiently and cost-effectively. However, he stressed it would not replace human expertise.
“AI will enable us to inform decisions much faster and much better,” he said. “But it only operates on the data that’s available. The model has to run on something.”
What is the Murona Forum?
The two-day Murona Forum was organised by the Emergencies, Crises and Disasters Management Centre Abu Dhabi (ADCMC) and brought together UAE and international leaders and experts to discuss how to respond to emergencies and disasters. Matar Al Nuaimi, director general of ADCMC, said the forum aimed to strengthen institutional preparedness and resilience.
“Abu Dhabi is committed to developing an integrated ecosystem for the management of emergencies, crises and disasters, founded on effective partnerships, the exchange of expertise and the adoption of innovative solutions and advanced technologies that enhance the capacity of entities to respond and recover with flexibility and efficiency,” he said.
More details were announced for a major disaster risk management conference to be held in Abu Dhabi this year.
The Understanding Risk Global Forum will be hosted in the Middle East for the first time in October and is organised by the GFDRR and the Abu Dhabi centre.
Mr Holm-Nielsen said Abu Dhabi was chosen because of the UAE’s rapid advances in technology, particularly in AI and geospatial data, which are increasingly central to disaster risk management.
