Millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain could be left without adequate storage as the war with Russia turns the Black Sea and its vital shipping lanes into battlefields, with consequences biting hard from Europe to the Middle East.
It's a double blow for several countries in the region that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain, as it comes amid continuing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz that have reduced food deliveries and disrupted fertiliser and energy exports.
The two disruptions are connected: Ukraine has traditionally been an important supplier of relatively affordable grain to regional markets, while Gulf shipping routes are vital to food imports and the energy and fertiliser supplies needed to keep agricultural production moving.
In recent months, drone and missile attacks by Russia and Ukraine escalated, striking vessels, cargo ships and targets near vital ports of countries overlooking the strategic waters, mirroring hits in the Strait of Hormuz about 10,000km away.
Ambrey Analytics reported this month that two sides hit 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, more than fourfold higher than the 74 vessels they struck in the previous half-year. Ukraine carried out 137 attacks on ships compared with 92 Russian ones in the third quarter, while in October, Russia hit 38 compared with five Ukrainian strikes, Ambrey added.
“The Black Sea is one of the world’s most important food corridors, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for around one third of global wheat trade. For the farmers themselves, the disruptions mean they are facing very low prices and have excess food stocks they simply cannot sell,” Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the UN's World Food Programme's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told The National.
“The Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz affect different parts of the same food system. One is critical for grain exports; the other for oil and fertiliser. Together, these disruptions can make food more expensive to grow, transport and buy,” Mr Bauer said.
“Farmers face higher production costs, while import-dependent countries, including many in the Middle East, face more costly and less predictable supplies.”
As of October 30, 2026, Ukraine had exported 29 per cent less than on October 31, 2025, in the previous season, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
The consequences are already showing up in global food prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said that those prices rose in September, driven partly by a 6.3 per cent increase in wheat prices, which reached their highest level in more than three years.
The FAO attributed the rise in wheat prices partly to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region, which pushed importers towards alternative suppliers. It also said uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had kept fuel, fertiliser and freight costs high.
“It has been a long, hot, and dangerous summer in the Black Sea, where long-range missiles have delivered destruction to ships as well as Russian and Ukrainian towns and cities. And the longer it goes on, the more global food security is in the line of fire, too,” Carnegie Europe wrote recently.
“Harvested Ukrainian grain is now being shipped out by truck or train, at much greater expense. The Danube river could not handle exports, as water levels were at a historic low this summer. And Russian attacks have destroyed up to 40 per cent of Ukraine’s storage facilities,” it added.
Ukraine began the 2026-27 export season ahead of the previous year, but shipments stalled from August as Russian strikes on ports in the Odesa region intensified. By mid-October, grain exports were about a quarter lower than at the same point last season, according to Ukrainian government figures.
The country exported 37.5 million tonnes of grain and pulses in the 2025-26 season, with the Middle East and North Africa among its main markets. Every month of disruption leaves more of the harvest in Ukraine and increases pressure on storage facilities.
Much of the grain remains in commercial silos, elevators, and temporary farm storage, but export delays are reducing space for the incoming harvest. No official reports have documented large-scale grain spoilage in Ukraine, but prolonged storage pressure increases the risk of deterioration and losses.
The EU ambassador to the UAE, Lucie Berger, warned that more than nine million tonnes of Ukrainian grain, oilseeds and meal could be left without available storage by November. “Growing food is not enough; it has to be stored, transported and shipped to the countries that need it,” she wrote in a comment piece published by the embassy last week.
“The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al Mandeb are vital to global trade, and when shipping through them is disrupted, the effects are quickly felt in transport costs, energy prices and the wider economy,” she added.
The disruption is particularly significant for Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer. The country sources much of its wheat from the Black Sea region because of competitive prices, leaving it exposed when Ukraine restricts exports. Even with a domestic wheat harvest of about 10 million tonnes in 2026, Egypt is expected to require 13.5 million tonnes of wheat imports and 15.5 million tonnes of maize imports in the 2026-27 season, according to the FAO.
More pressure
The Strait of Hormuz crisis adds another layer of pressure. Egypt's wheat imports mainly arrive through the Suez Canal rather than Hormuz, but higher fuel, fertiliser and freight costs feed into the price of imported food and the cost of maintaining its subsidised bread programme.
For poorer countries in the region, higher prices and disrupted supply chains add to existing crises.
In Yemen, 47 per cent of the population in government-controlled areas was facing high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the latest analysis cited by UN agencies. Emergency-level food insecurity was expected to affect 1.8 million people between October and December.
In Lebanon, food prices have also risen sharply. WFP's country director Allison Oman told a UN briefing in April that vegetable prices had increased by more than 20 per cent and bread prices by 17 per cent in a month. A separate analysis projected that 1.24 million people would face crisis-level food insecurity or worse between April and August.
Gaza is also heavily reliant on humanitarian food assistance and imports. The latest assessment cited in the material projects more than 1.4 million people facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse between July and December. Higher global grain and fuel prices mean that the same amount of humanitarian funding buys less food.
The effects could extend into next year's harvest. Disruptions to fertiliser shipments through Hormuz are threatening supplies needed by farmers worldwide. The FAO has warned that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies in the second half of 2026 and into 2027, with import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East particularly exposed.
The longer-term risk for the region is less affordable grain available from Ukraine now, alongside the possibility of tighter global supplies and higher production costs in the next harvest.
“The lack of [..] grain in world markets puts [..] countries at risk of famine, while world cereal prices, already pushed up by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could rise even higher,” said the Carnegie Europe report.
“Disturbingly, the crisis also makes conflict-wracked countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, vulnerable to famine." The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the first blow, it added.
The EU has supported alternative routes to move Ukrainian agricultural products to international markets, while the FAO and its partners have helped expand temporary storage capacity inside Ukraine. But alternative transport routes cannot fully replace the capacity of Black Sea ports, and temporary storage cannot solve the problem if exports remain blocked.
The crisis underlines how exposed the Middle East remains to disruption far beyond its borders.
Ukraine's harvest is struggling to reach buyers, while the Gulf's main maritime gateway has been severely restricted. For countries that depend on imported food, the result is a more expensive and uncertain global market at a time when millions of people are already struggling to afford their next meal, and could see a full-scale war between Iran and the US erupting again at any moment.
The political deadlock continues on both fronts. The Iran war that broke out in February this year brought most shipping through the Hormuz to a standstill. In the Ukraine war, attacks continue on both sides. US-mediated talks are set to take place in Abu Dhabi next week.
“For WFP, higher shipping costs and delays also stretch already limited resources. There is still enough food globally, the issue is whether it can reach the people who need it at a price they can afford,” said Mr Bauer.
