Countries neighbouring Iraq are reassessing their security calculations as the withdrawal of US-led coalition air-defence systems, including those deployed in the north, removes an important defensive layer along a route repeatedly taken by Iranian missiles and drones.
The September 30 deadline was agreed on between Baghdad and Washington in 2024 as part of a broader agreement to transform the mission of the US-led coalition in Iraq from combat and advisory roles to bilateral security co-operation.
The American detection and interception capabilities in Iraq, especially those in the Kurdistan region, which hosts several main coalition sites that have been used for training, logistics and air operations against ISIS remnants, have become relevant to security calculations in Jordan, Syria, and to some extent Israel.
However, Qasim Al Araji, security adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister, confirmed in statements to local media that the withdrawal will include all US-led coalition air-defence systems, including those deployed in the Kurdistan Region.
"Countries in the region are continuously revising their security calculations, and now, with US and coalition forces withdrawing crucial equipment, their efforts to find alternatives are intensifying already," a regional security official said.
The systems around Kurdistan’s capital Erbil, including Patriot and C-Ram capabilities, have played an important role in protecting US and coalition facilities from missile and drone attacks. Iraqi officials had previously indicated that the withdrawal timetable would apply to American military personnel and equipment alike.
Security and strategic analyst Maan Al Jubouri described the consequences as potentially “direct and significant”, particularly for Kurdistan. “There is no doubt that the impact will be direct and significant on the capabilities and readiness of the armed forces and security agencies after the American withdrawal, particularly from Kurdistan,” Mr Al Jubouri said.
He warned that the consequences would extend across Iraq because of the weakness of the country's existing air-defence network. “Iraqi airspace will be greatly affected. This will make it easier for any other party, whether neighbouring states or armed groups, to breach Iraqi airspace,” he added.
The three-year plan
Iraq's skies became a corridor for missiles, drones and aircraft as Iran, the US and Israel exchanged attacks. Iran has also repeatedly attacked US troops in Iraq, while recent Iranian attacks have extended to US facilities in Jordan and other states in the region.
Recent attacks make the disappearance of US air-defence assets from Iraq a regional issue rather than an Iraqi military one.
For Jordan, the implications are particularly important. The kingdom has become a vital part of the US military network in the region and has itself faced Iranian missile and drone attacks. The withdrawal of American systems from Iraq could potentially remove one layer of detection, tracking and interception further east. The same applies to Syria and Israel.
Mr Al Jubouri said the departure of the US would create a broader security vacuum. “The impact of the absence of the air-defence system in Iraq will have a direct and significant impact in the region,” he explained. “It will create a huge void and affect the balance of power."
Meanwhile, Iraqi Defence Ministry spokesman Maj Gen Yahya Rasool said the government is working to build an integrated national air-defence system incorporating long, medium and short-range capabilities as well as radar and command infrastructure.
Mr Rasool said the armed forces had originally prepared a six-year development plan, but Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi ordered that the timetable be reduced to three years. “The system must be completed and operate in a balanced manner,” he explained, adding that Iraq was holding “continuous meetings with reputable companies” as it works to develop its air-defence capabilities.
But Mr Al Jubouri doubts that three years will be enough to eliminate the vulnerability. “The process is not that easy. It is not a commodity that can simply be purchased,” he said.
Building effective air-defence architecture, he argued, requires not only equipment but also the expertise to operate and integrate it. “We need air defences, expertise and training in operating and activating them. All of this requires many years."
