Two months ahead of Palestine's first legislative elections in two decades, several factions that once seemed to be on opposite sides of the political spectrum are forming unexpected alliances in an attempt to upset the status quo.
The last Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections took place in 2006, securing a contested win for Hamas. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who has been in office since 2005, had since announced legislative and presidential elections in 2021, but cancelled them, citing Israel's refusal to allow Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem to take part as the reason.
Experts said he was taking the easy way out, after opinion polls had found a candidate list led by imprisoned Palestinian activist Marwan Barghouti would win the legislative elections.
Energised by European and US pressure for reform exerted on the ruling Palestinian Authority (PA), which Mr Abbas heads, different political factions have expressed their desire to participate in the November elections.
The process would be heavily overshadowed by the repercussions of the Gaza war, which has led to Hamas losing its grip on the territory it governed for years. It will also be influenced by the escalating situation in the occupied West Bank, mainly marked by the increasing attacks by armed settlers on Palestinian towns and homes.
A meeting between Mohammad Dahlan, the head of a breakaway faction of the ruling party Fatah, and Hamas chief Khalil Al Hayya, took place in Egypt's Al Alamein on Monday. The meeting focused on “unity of the national position”, Mr Dahlan's Democratic Reform party said in a statement. But discussions went even deeper.
A Hamas official said a “political alliance” involving several Palestinian political factions, including the group and Mr Dahlan's party, is being formed. The matter is still “under study”, he said, with meetings between the factions ongoing. “In principle, there is an alliance” emerging, the official added.
The implication here is that such an alliance could be an attempt to upset Mr Abbas's 21-year rule of Palestine, and Fatah is watching with concern and anger.
Speaking to The National, the group's spokesman Abdel Fattah Dawla challenged the legitimacy of a potential alliance. “On what political and national basis is this alliance being formed? What are its objectives and what are its points of reference?” he said. He insisted Fatah is ready to face any alliances “built on hostility” towards it.
The Hayyah-Dahlan meeting took place on the same day that US Middle East envoy Jared Kushner was in Egypt, where he met Hamas officials, according to sources.
Mr Dahlan had clashed with Hamas during his position as head of the Preventive Security Force and Fatah representative in Gaza. He was later exiled from Fatah. Many believe the move stems from him being viewed as a threat to Mr Abbas's political survival.
“They all emphasise that there should be a more diverse set of parties and opinions in the Palestinian leadership because Abbas is exclusively in control,” Fathi Nimer from the Palestinian Policy Network (Al Shabaka) think tank told The National.
With Hamas losing its grip on Gaza, by dissolving its governing authority after almost two decades in power to pave the way for a transitional technocratic body to take over under the Board of Peace, and then by agreeing to disarm, there is a lot of desire by the group to remain a player in the political circles. One way of doing so could be through an expanded coalition with other factions in the elections.
A recent opinion poll showed Palestinian support for armed struggle has dropped sharply in less than a year, with most now in favour of negotiations to end the Israeli occupation and achieve statehood. The Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research conducted the survey across Gaza and the occupied West Bank this month, after Mr Abbas announced the elections.
“Twenty-seven per cent of people chose armed struggle, compared with 40 per cent in October”, when asked about the most effective way to establish an independent Palestinian state and end the Israeli occupation, the report said. “Forty-four per cent of people chose negotiations, compared to 36 per cent 10 months ago,” it added.
