Houthi militants are planning to escalate the conflict in Yemen and regionalise it in support of their main patron, Iran, and their long-term strategic goals, sources told The National on Monday.
The Yemeni rebels, who for more than a decade have controlled the only Arab capital outside the hands of a recognised government, have said publicly their latest attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Bab Al Mandeb strait and government forces are aimed at pushing for a resolution to the war in Yemen.
However, sources close to the rebels revealed a multipronged strategy driven partly by the need to step up support for Tehran as other Iranian-backed groups retreat underground, while timing the escalation to maximise potential gains.
“Regarding the timing of these developments alongside what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, [Houthi rebels in] Sanaa are undoubtedly taking advantage of this moment,” said a former Yemeni diplomat who is now a key adviser for the Houthis.
“Pressure on shipping in Bab Al Mandeb, combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would produce a more significant impact.”
Until June, the Houthis, armed and backed mainly by Iran, had largely remained on the sidelines as Tehran fought a major war with the US and Israel. Iran's main regional proxy, Hezbollah, had been severely weakened, Iraqi militias were under heavy pressure both domestically and from Washington, while Hamas had lost commanders and fighters and no longer appeared capable of governing Gaza.
The Houthis' entry into the regional conflict was gradual. It began with missile attacks on Israel, followed by threats to Israeli and US-linked shipping in the Red Sea, testing Saudi Arabia's response by receiving Iranian aircraft in Sanaa, before escalating with attacks around Bab Al Mandeb, strikes on Saudi cities and renewed fighting against forces aligned with Yemen's internationally recognised government.
By increasingly positioning themselves in support of Tehran, which has sought to regionalise its confrontation with the US and Israel by drawing Gulf states and other regional actors into the crisis, the Houthis also jeopardised two arrangements that had given Yemen a measure of stability: a truce with Washington that had prevented US strikes on Sanaa and a process with Saudi Arabia that had been steering the Yemeni conflict towards a diplomatic settlement.
The right moment
The Houthis' strategy, however, is not driven solely by their role in supporting Iran, which can use the rebels' actions as leverage at the negotiating table. It also reflects a strategic effort to establish themselves as a leading regional actor capable of altering political and military situations beyond Yemen.
“Sanaa has the right to act at the time it considers appropriate,” another source in Yemen's capital said. While blaming the latest escalation on Saudi Arabia after it bombed Sanaa's airport, the source acknowledged that Riyadh's action “effectively gave Yemen a free hand to retaliate and break the blockade”.
The source said Iran had asked its Houthi allies to act in its interests at the “right moment”, adding that this moment was “now” and that “taking advantage of the current regional circumstances serves Sanaa's interests today, and the interests of allies”.
In March, two weeks after the war began, a source in Sanaa with knowledge of the Houthis' plans told The National that the rebels would “intervene at the appropriate time”. Another regional militant commander said that “at some point, the Houthis will inevitably join in”.
That moment finally came as Iran entered a critical phase of negotiations aimed at securing a permanent peace deal, with the deadline for reaching an agreement only a week away.
The Houthis have steadily intensified their actions since the US and Iran signed their initial agreement on June 17. As the talks dragged on, the rebels escalated, culminating in attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
Their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, while Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, risk compounding an already severe global economic shock. The Red Sea-Suez route carries an estimated 12 to 15 per cent of global trade, while the Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world's oil supply. Simultaneous disruption of both arteries is forcing governments, consumers and shipping companies to confront a new economic reality.
Leading role
The Houthis have long drawn inspiration from Hezbollah. But with the Lebanese group significantly weakened, the Yemeni rebels appear to be gradually assuming a larger regional role of their own, attacking Israel, challenging US allies, supporting Iran and, according to reports, expanding into the training of allied militants across the region, from Sudan to Iraq, after having themselves benefited from years of training and assistance from Hezbollah.
“I have no doubt that Sanaa seized the opportunity and used the strike on Sanaa airport to impose its own equations,” the former diplomat said. “Its blockade against Saudi Arabia, coinciding with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will have a greater impact than a blockade in Bab Al Mandeb alone. But even if there were no US-Iranian conflict, Sanaa would not abandon what it regards as its rights or its regional interests.”
Saudi Arabia leads a coalition formed to support Yemen's internationally recognised government after the Houthis seized control of the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, as well as large areas of the country's west and north. The latest Houthi attacks ended years of relative calm following a ceasefire agreement with Riyadh in 2022.
The attacks have also prompted Yemen's pro-government forces to respond, raising the risk of renewed internal fighting that could exacerbate the country's already severe humanitarian crisis. Such an escalation could, in turn, internationalise the conflict once again by forcing foreign powers to intervene diplomatically to halt the fighting, giving the Houthis, and by extension Iran, another source of leverage.
Yemeni armed forces claim to have developed new capabilities, including an air-defence system to counter Houthi drones and missiles. But without Saudi military support, the armed forces may lack the ability to fight Houthis on their own.
On Monday, those forces announced a new campaign to eliminate the threat from Houthi rebels following the spate of deadly attacks on government-held areas.
"The Armed Forces will continue to perform their duties with high efficiency on all fronts, pressing forward in the national battle until its objectives are achieved, the threat posed by the Houthi terrorist militia and its Iranian project is eliminated, and security and stability are restored to Yemen and its institutions," said Armed Forces Spokesman Majid Al Nuzaili.
The announcement came a day after a Houthi assault on Mokha that the government said killed at least seven people and caused significant damage to the city's port on the Red Sea. The rebels have also targeted government forces in Hadhramaut, Hodeidah and Marib, causing dozens of casualties in their ranks. The government said the attack on Mokha killed seven people, including four members of the armed forces, and injured at least 30 others.
Yemen expert Elisabeth Kendall says that internally, the Houthis may be seizing the initiative to “press for gains before any potential regional deal with Iran”, and externally they may be seeking to “increase their leverage over Saudi Arabia” in advance of any agreement. “Iran may be using the Houthis as extra leverage in the background,” she said.
According to Abdulghani Al Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies, the Houthis may also be anticipating finding themselves largely cut off from Iran, which has provided them with money, weapons and intelligence, if Tehran and Washington reach a deal to end their war.
“They're playing a very risky game,” he said.
