When Lebanese President Joseph Aoun took office after more than a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah, he faced daunting political and security challenges.
The former army commander was tasked with restoring the Lebanese state's authority across the country and ensuring all weapons came under government control.
That task became more complicated as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumed in early March this year after Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes of the Iran war.
With more than 4,000 people killed and hundreds of thousands displaced by the renewed fighting and the Israeli military occupying and destroying large areas along the border in the south, the Lebanese government began direct negotiations with Israel in April under US auspices.
Mr Aoun's critics, particularly Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies, accuse him of compromising Lebanon's sovereignty. Others argue he has not gone far enough in confronting Hezbollah, with some calling for the immediate disarmament of the group and the establishment of ties between Lebanon and Israel.
The criticism is mounting as a second round of direct talks begins in Rome on Tuesday, after five initial rounds in Washington that led to a contentious framework agreement in late June for an Israeli withdrawal from the south in tandem with the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces there and the disarmament of Hezbollah. However, the LAF has deployed to only three villages so far.
The US Ambassador to Lebanon, Michael Issa, defended the slow pace of implementation in a message posted on X on Monday. "We believe it is better to take the time needed to get this right the first time. Doing so will allow subsequent pilot zones to move forward more efficiently," he said.
"Above all, both sides must agree on a clear, workable process before proceeding.”
Mr Aoun has repeatedly said he aims to restore Lebanese sovereignty by deploying the military across the country and ensuring that the state holds a monopoly on weapons. But achieving his objective will require more than issuing orders. Despite suffering heavy losses during the war, Hezbollah remains a powerful political force with significant influence in parliament and government, while the Lebanese military continues to face financial and logistical challenges amid a years-long economic crisis.
“The whole discussion keeps going around in circles,” a political source told The National. “I call it a spiral framework. Once you enter it, you just keep spinning in loops."
The source was sceptical of Israel's true long-term plans in southern Lebanon. The source added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said, "As long as I am Prime Minister, we will not withdraw," implying that Hezbollah security threats may only be "pretexts" for Israel to strengthen its occupation of southern Lebanon.
Opposing demands
Hezbollah has rejected calls for disarmament, arguing that discussions over its arsenal can only take place after Israel withdraws from Lebanese territory and ends what the group describes as breaches of the country's sovereignty.
“Our weapons are the backbone of the resistance. They are the ones that liberated our country,” Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said last year.
Israeli officials say any troop withdrawal must be accompanied by guarantees that Hezbollah cannot rebuild its military capabilities. "Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah and the rest of the terrorist organisations are disarmed, and until no further threat to Israel is posed from Lebanon," Mr Netanyahu said in June.
Makram Rabah, a professor of history at the American University of Beirut, told The National that an Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament "have to come hand in hand".
"The Israelis' goal is to disarm Hezbollah. It does not make sense for them to leave without having accomplished their goal," he added.
Mr Aoun must now reconcile two opposing demands – convincing Israel that Lebanon can prevent Hezbollah from rearming, while persuading Hezbollah supporters that negotiations will strengthen Lebanese sovereignty.
"It is a challenge Joseph Aoun has to take," Mr Rabah said. "His biggest failure would be to become irrelevant and for different superpowers to, one way or another, outsource Lebanon's sovereignty."
The outcome could shape his presidency. A successful agreement could strengthen Lebanese state institutions, unlock international support for reconstruction and prevent another war. But failure risks leaving Lebanon caught between Israel's security demands and Hezbollah's refusal to surrender its arms.
"The government needs to win back the confidence of the Lebanese themselves," Mr Rabah said. "What the Lebanese want first and foremost is security."
