With negotiations between Israel and Lebanon set to resume in Rome next week, a quiet struggle between them is playing out in the background – the competition for Donald Trump’s favour.
It is the crux of Lebanon’s negotiating strategy, which hinges on one risky gamble: winning the personal backing of the US President – the leader of Israel’s greatest ally – so he applies pressure on Israel to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.
Lebanon’s leadership is well aware of the country’s weakness in US-mediated negotiations with Israel. Their only card, they argue, is to court a president whose foreign policy is known to privilege direct relationships at the expense of traditional international institutions.
“He’s the only one able to convince [the Israelis to withdraw],” said a Lebanese official with knowledge of the main talks and the parallel shadow diplomacy.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met Mr Trump in Washington last week, the first such visit in 17 years. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is in Washington this week for his seventh visit since Mr Trump's second inauguration.
The negotiations in Rome, due to be held from August 4 to 6, may demonstrate who was more successful in courting Mr Trump.
The National spoke to five sources familiar with the talks – three Lebanese political officials and two western diplomats – to shed light on the discussions. An interim deal signed on June 26 seeks a phased withdrawal of the Israeli army from the south of Lebanon, starting with two small pilot zones, where implementation began last week.
Their success was meant to be a test for a broader withdrawal. But with no timeframe for Israeli withdrawal – not even following Mr Aoun’s visit – and no independent check on the process, the pilot-zone concept has come under heavy criticism. Critically, the location or even existence of the next pilot zone has yet to be agreed upon, according to sources briefed on the negotiations.
Meanwhile, on the ground Israel keeps entrenching its occupation, razing villages – of which dozens have been destroyed – and building fortifications and checkpoints.
In any case, Lebanon’s establishment does not expect any further withdrawal of Israeli troops until after Israel’s general election in October.
“Frankly, even the Americans believe this is not the time to apply pressure because of the Israeli elections,” one Lebanese official told The National.
Critics of the framework agreement signed last month accuse Mr Aoun and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of pinning all their hopes on Mr Trump and US mediation. “It is quite dangerous because putting all your eggs in a single basket, when the person holding this basket is Donald Trump, is completely crazy,” said Karim Bitar, a Middle East expert at Sciences Po Paris university.
Western diplomats familiar with the talks warned of Lebanon’s US-centric approach in the long-term, with one concerned “that the Americans tend to view the Lebanon file through the prism of Israeli security rather than through the lens of stabilising Lebanon”.
The stakes are incredibly high: failure would risk formalising Israel's indefinite occupation of Lebanon’s south, which Israeli troops currently occupy. “If they do stay, they could end up doing what they have done in Gaza, or what they are doing in the West Bank,” the same diplomat added.
Vague promises, few guarantees
Mr Aoun hopes to use Lebanon’s entry into the US orbit by squeezing out a string of economic and security deals, giving the small Mediterranean country a place in a new, US-directed Middle East. From the Gaza war to Syria’s political transition, US President Donald Trump has devoted considerable attention to expanding Washington’s influence in the region, with a focus on broadening the Abraham Accords and curbing Iran’s influence.
During his meeting with Mr Trump last week, Mr Aoun was able to secure promises but few guarantees. Mr Trump pledged assistance for the ill-equipped Lebanese army – lumbered with the mammoth task of disarming Hezbollah. A Lebanese-US joint defence agreement is also on the table, as well as an investment conference in Washington to attract international investors.
The cash-strapped country, which does not have a functioning banking sector, has few natural resources and it is unclear which sector could drive investors’ appetite.
But when it comes to securing Israel’s withdrawal from occupied south Lebanon, no guarantees were given, the Lebanese official said. Mr Trump merely promised to put pressure on Mr Netanyahu – pressure which the Israeli leader has so far resisted.
Mr Netanyahu has firmly repeated that its troops will not leave south Lebanon, as long as, according to him, security concerns persist.
Next phase of pilot zones?
Uncertainty still surrounds the next phase of the peace framework. One political source, when asked if the next pilot zone would be decided on in the Rome talks, answered: “We're not sure. But we're asking for one.”
The second phase could be agreed “after verification” of the previously established pilot zones, the source said. But a third-party mechanism to verify the Lebanese army’s control of those areas does not exist.
The talks, both political and military in nature, will address the possible establishment of such a mechanism. But the outcome of the talks will hinge on whether the US applies pressure to Israel.
At his meeting with Mr Trump, Mr Aoun petitioned for the extension of a UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, proposing that its troops could act as third-party verifiers. “That way, you don't need to waste time going through the whole process of bringing in a new force,” the official source said.
The US promised to discuss the idea with the Israelis, but, once again, fell short of giving any guarantees. A second western diplomat described the Lebanon-Israel talks as a “dilemma”.
“The talks were not well prepared, Lebanon lacked a strong advisory team, and it became trapped in a one-against-two dynamic. It has had no control over the pace of events and has repeatedly been confronted with a fait accompli,” the diplomat said.
Israeli withdrawal?
Mr Aoun’s meeting with Mr Trump produced nothing concrete regarding Israeli withdrawal.
“You can say that they listened to our point of view. What we want is Israeli withdrawal and an end to the violations. We don't have promises,” the Lebanese official said. “What we have is that they said they would work with the Israelis on this issue.”
Some in Lebanon’s political establishment are pessimistic, doubtful the talks will achieve tangible results – although they expressed willingness to allow the negotiations to play out.
“The whole discussion keeps going around in circles,” one political source said. “I call it a spiral framework. Once you enter it, you just keep spinning in loops." The same source was sceptical of Israel's real long-term intentions in the south.
“Nenanyahu said it himself, as long ‘as I am Prime Minister, we will not withdraw’,” he added, implying that Hezbollah security threats might only be “pretexts” for Israel to settle in southern Lebanon. “The problem is the lack of implementation and the lack of commitment, mainly on the Israeli side.”
But Mr Aoun’s camp is hoping to bypass such reservations by selling Israel’s withdrawal as a long-term benefit to Israel.
“If you reach an agreement ending the state of hostilities with Israel, you're achieving something Israel has dreamt about for a long time,” the Lebanese official said. “You’re telling them: ‘I guarantee your security. As the Lebanese army and Lebanese state, I'm guaranteeing your security.' What more do you want as an Israeli?”
“Unless you actually want the land. In that case, it's a different issue. Then let's understand that and have a different conversation.”
