The killing of two US troops in an attack on an airbase in Jordan has raised new concerns about Iran's ability to breach American defences across the Middle East.
For years, Iran has said it has hidden military capabilities that could surprise its foes, with commanders repeatedly claiming they have yet to deploy the full extent of their strategic weapons. The claims are often dismissed as psychological warfare but the latest barrage suggests some of those warnings are gaining credibility.
The strike on Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan came after Iran warned further attacks could trigger a stronger response.
The US military's Central Command said two American service members were killed and another was missing. Four personnel were taken to hospital and later discharged. It was the fourth Iranian strike on American forces in Jordan in five days, The New York Times reported. In earlier attacks, dozens were wounded and military aircraft, including helicopters, were damaged.
The concentrated firepower against Jordanian bases has been described as a possible “shaping operation” meant to weaken defences ahead of a larger offensive.
Washington remains Tehran’s primary target but the campaign may also aim to degrade the network that would intercept future Iranian strikes on Israel.
Jordan sits directly on the main missile and drone corridor towards Israel and has intercepted large numbers of projectiles crossing its airspace during the past two years. Two of the targeted defence zones are close to Israel, making Jordan's bases a natural target, either to test regional defences or to blunt their ability to stop future attacks.
'Missile city'
Iran has adapted its missile capabilities to counter American air defences, using weapons that travel at extremely high speeds and can manoeuvre during descent, making them harder to intercept, US officials quoted by The Wall Street Journal said.
The officials said Tehran had restored more than half of its prewar missile capacity through underground “missile city” facilities, allowing Iran to rapidly replenish its stockpiles and maintain the ability to launch sustained strikes against US and allied targets. Some officials also raised concerns Iran may be receiving foreign assistance, including possible targeting support from China or Russia.
Tehran may increasingly lean on drones, which are cheap to produce and can be launched in bulk. A mass drone assault on Israel would reinforce the theory that Iran is running a shaping operation, potentially weakening Jordanian and American capability enough to let drones reach Israel over Jordan in large numbers.
The Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Hasan airbases in Jordan each host large numbers of US aircraft and sit about 100km from the Israeli border. Assessments of the strikes indicate progress in Iran's ballistic missile programme, particularly in developing manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles that improve accuracy and complicate interception.
Not everyone is convinced Iran can sustain such a campaign, however. Some argue it would need a major leap in drone-swarming capability to overwhelm layered, integrated air defences. Others say even a small fraction of drones getting through could shift perceptions of security inside Israel. The strikes may also be an effort to probe regional defences for weaknesses to exploit later.
The Jordan strikes were part of a broader Iranian offensive against US assets and allies, with attacks also reported in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Some reports by Iranian state media about destroyed American aircraft and facilities remain unverified.
The US, in turn, struck Iranian coastal surveillance systems, air defence facilities and other military infrastructure, aiming to reduce threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict appears to be entering a more dangerous phase, with missile manoeuvres, drone swarms, strikes on infrastructure and efforts to erode regional defences likely to fuel cycles of retaliation and increase the risk of a wider Middle East war.
