Donald Trump’s suggestion that Syria could take over Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon raises several problems that the US President might not be aware of, according to Jeffrey Feltman, a veteran diplomat who has served as America’s ambassador in Beirut.
Such a move also places Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara, who Mr Trump has cultivated as an ally after his forces toppled the Assad regime in December 2024, in an awkward position, Mr Feltman told The National.
The latest war between Israel and Hezbollah began after the US and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28, killing the country’s then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iran-backed group fired rockets into southern Israel in retaliation, prompting an Israeli invasion and bombing campaign against what it says are Hezbollah-linked targets.
Israel’s occupation and attacks continue, complicating US efforts to reach a peace deal with Iran, which insists any deal must include a halt to the fighting in Lebanon.
Lebanon is under pressure from the US and Israel to disarm Hezbollah in various diplomatic tracks, including a trilateral US-brokered framework agreement last week aimed at ending the war in the country. The agreement does not mention Israeli “withdrawal” from south Lebanon but does refer to “eventual redeployment” of its forces, contingent on the dismantling and disarmament of Hezbollah. For the moment, there is a fragile status quo.
Israel continues to carry out attacks despite the US announcing a ceasefire, although at a lower level, prompting Mr Trump to float the idea of Syria picking up the fight against Hezbollah as a way to end Israeli strikes.
“It's a preposterous idea but it's not just a throwaway line. It's clear that he's thought about this or was told about this because he repeated it,” said Mr Feltman, who was stationed in Beirut from 2004 to 2008.
He said the idea “reflects real ignorance” of the logistical and historical complications of Syria's involvement in Lebanon.
The suggestion also places Mr Al Shara, who has previously won strong backing from Mr Trump, in an awkward position, he said. “It makes an uncomfortable relationship with Washington at a time when Trump threw his weight behind Shara. It's awkward for Shara but I don’t think he would fall into what would be a trap.”
Mr Feltman wondered where the idea may have come from: “Was it something that the Israelis suggested as a test for Shara? I don't know.”
Any Syrian intervention would face practical challenges. Israel showed its ability to penetrate Hezbollah with the 2024 pager attacks, in which dozens of people were killed by exploding devices, but has not been able to subdue the group entirely.
“If the Israelis with their superior intelligence … and overwhelming military force cannot eliminate Hezbollah militarily, why would Syria be able to do that?” Mr Feltman asked.
There is also a historical dimension, as any military return to Lebanon would also evoke memories of Syria's occupation of the country between 1976 and 2005. There are also religious tensions that may be reignited by such a move, particularly with Syria now a Sunni-dominated state that would be fighting against Hezbollah, a primarily Shiite militant group.
Mr Trump's suggestion followed criticism of Israel's conduct in Lebanon and its devastation of the south of the country, at a time when he is pursuing a deal with Iran. At the G7 summit in France last month, he said “too many people” had been killed in Israel's campaign.
“You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses and they're not all Hezbollah,” he said.
Israel is not part of the interim agreement signed between Iran and the US on June 17.
Trump's attention span
Mr Feltman said US and Israeli politics could affect the next stages of the peace process, with Iran potentially able to “insert some tension” between the allies by using its influence on Hezbollah.
“The whole success or failure of implementation of the trilateral framework depends on US support and attention that the US is not very good at,” he said. “The US in the best of times loses interest and attention, and Trump has a notoriously short attention span.”
Mr Feltman said imminent Israeli elections, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is highlighting threats from Iran to win support, makes it less likely that Israel will withdraw from the “security belt” it has created in southern Lebanon.
“Netanyahu wants to be re-elected for a number of reasons, including his court cases. I don’t see him being eager to redeploy out of Lebanon in an election season when the Israeli public is with the fighting of Hezbollah,” Mr Feltman said.
“There seems to be an implicit understanding that as long as Israel doesn’t hit Beirut, Hezbollah isn’t hitting northern Israel and vice versa. But there is no implicit understanding about what happens in the part of Lebanon that Israel is occupying.”
