ISIS attacks against Syrian government forces have risen sharply in 2026, a conflict monitor has reported, after the country's authorities launched a nationwide campaign targeting the group.
The campaign was triggered by an ISIS-claimed attack on US troops in Palmyra in December last year, in which a member of the Syrian security forces opened fire during a joint patrol, killing two American soldiers and a US interpreter.
ISIS attacks against Syrian government forces have risen from 16 last year to 52 in the first half of 2026, according to the conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (Acled).
“In 2025, there were 274 political violence events involving ISIS in Syria. Of those, 203 were directed against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and 16 against government forces,” Muaz Al Abdullah, a researcher on Syria and Iraq for Acled, told The National.
“But in the first half of 2026, Acled recorded 70 ISIS attacks, of which 52 targeted government forces and five were directed against the SDF,” he said.
Mr Abdullah said ISIS now targets all state security organisations. Attacks have hit checkpoints, patrols and security centres. “Government forces are an easy target because of their lack of capacity and weaker security presence,” he explained.
The Syrian leadership, which came to power after the fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime in December 2024, has its origins in the country’s Islamist insurgency. It evolved from Jabhat Al Nusra, Al Qaeda’s former affiliate in Syria, to Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS). The group was led by Ahmad Al Shara, who is now Syria’s president.
Since assuming power, Mr Al Shara has sought to demonstrate that his government is a reliable security partner, particularly in the fight against ISIS. Syrian authorities have increased co-ordination with US-led coalition forces on counterterrorism operations, sharing intelligence and conducting raids.
ISIS started gaining traction in Syria in 2013, in the chaos of the civil war. It seized and controlled large areas, including Raqqa, which became the capital of its so-called caliphate across Syria and Iraq. Its downfall started in 2016, when a US-led coalition, alongside the SDF and local allies, pushed the group back. Raqqa fell to the Kurds in 2017, and the group lost its last major territorial enclave in Syria, the village of Baghouz, in March 2019.
Security gaps
The Syrian state assumed control of former SDF-held areas following heavy fighting in 2025. However, the expansion significantly stretched the country’s security apparatus, which lacked the personnel needed to effectively police such a vast territory. As a result, security oversight in parts of the north-east region weakened, leaving some areas only partially secured and more exposed to attacks.
On June 15, ISIS fighters targeted Raqqa’s main police headquarters, killing two police officers and injuring three others. “What we saw was something we had not seen in months. Two ISIS fighters entered the building, and they were both wearing explosive vests,” Mr Al Abdullah told The National.
One was killed by police after failing to detonate his vest, but the second managed to detonate his explosives.
The nature of the attack is also concerning for Mr Al Abdullah. “ISIS militants can now walk up to a police station wearing an explosive vest without being spotted before,” he said, highlighting security gaps in the area.
“In Raqqa, there is only 20 per cent of the necessary police force. There is a major shortage of security personnel, which makes these types of attacks easier. Between January and June, ISIS appears to have been planning and preparing for larger operations. The attack in Raqqa may be the first of several such attacks.”
In January, several ISIS-linked detainees held in SDF-run detention centres are said to have escaped during fighting with government forces. These detention centres, overcrowded and poorly secured, hosted up to thousands of ISIS fighters, until an agreement moved them to Iraq.
“Following the prison-related incidents in 2026, many experienced planners and hardline ISIS members were either released or managed to escape. The group has since entered a phase of reorganising its ranks, allowing for more sophisticated attacks.”
There is no exact number of ISIS members in Syria currently, but Mr Al Abdullah believes there are “thousands” all across the country.
Territory shift
The group's main areas of operation remain in central Syria and the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, while its sleeper cells in former SDF-held areas have become less active as the territory they occupy has shrunk. Some of that activity has shifted towards the Aleppo region, where 12 events have been recorded in the first half of this year.
Attacks are now increasingly launched from areas where ISIS has greater freedom of movement, particularly rural areas east of Deir Ezzor. Some parts of the region, which lack basic state infrastructure, have come under ISIS influence.
The economic and general living conditions in both Raqqa and Deir Ezzor remain very poor, while the situation in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor is even worse, with a persistent lack of basic services.
“We have seen farmers pay tax to the group until recently,” Mr Al Abdullah said. “In some of these areas, ISIS is approaching the point where it could exercise full control. They are also benefiting from a security vacuum created by a lack of state capacity.”
To reduce ISIS’s operational capabilities, “the government needs to take significant steps to address the situation,” Mr Al Abdullah added. Primarily, this would involve fostering “closer ties between the people of the Deir Ezzor region and the government” by creating more employment and restoring main services.
