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Lebanon, already one of the world’s most displacement-affected nations, is bracing for further forced uprooting as Israeli troops advance their ground invasion in the south, the country’s Minister of Social Affairs told The National.
“Unfortunately, further displacement could become a reality,” Haneen Sayed said in an interview on Friday, with Israel pursuing plans to create what it describes as a "buffer zone", covering about 8 per cent of Lebanon.
“This is a real breach of sovereignty for Lebanon, and this is a very serious matter,” she added.
Israel has intensified its ground and air assault on Lebanon since Hezbollah entered the war against Israel and the US on March 2, destroying bridges and homes, and moving deeper into southern Lebanon.
Israeli strikes and forced displacement orders, covering at least 14 per cent of the country, have pushed more than one million people to flee, with about 130,000 living in 660 government shelters and the remaining staying mostly with relatives or in rented accommodation. Around 3,000 displaced people are still sleeping on the streets.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that the Israeli army would take control of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, about 30 kilometres from the border, to create what he called a "security zone", preventing hundreds of thousands of residents of south Lebanon from returning home until “security is guaranteed” in northern Israel.
Minister Katz said Israel was working in Lebanon according to the “Rafah and Beit Hanoun model”, referring to two towns in Gaza that the military has almost completely razed and depopulated.
Asked whether Israel was committing war crimes in Lebanon, Ms Sayed said: “We’ve seen Gaza, so it is not a surprise".
The war has given yet another blow to Lebanon’s spiralling economy, which had been showing signs of a timid recovery after years of economic turmoil.
Ms Sayed warned that the small country risks losing all the economic gains it made in 2025, stressing that even a three-month war could push its GDP down by 5 to 7 per cent after a year of 5 per cent growth.
Mass displacement
Cash-strapped Lebanon is struggling to cope with mass displacement. “All government agencies are mobilised and we are on red alert,” Ms Sayed explained, adding that the country is relying almost entirely on international aid and has requested $308 million from the UN for a three-month period.
“We have about $190 million in pledges, but only around $90 million has been received so far,” she added – around a third of the amount needed.
Most shelters are now at full capacity, with only 23 out of 660 still able to take in families. Many are located in the north of the country, therefore some families displaced from Beirut’s southern suburbs have chosen to sleep on the streets of the capital, allowing them to return to check on their homes during lulls in the bombing.
Authorities are preparing to open additional space for displaced families, including at the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, where about 400 families currently sleeping on the streets will be relocated this week.
“These shelters are run by the State,” Ms Sayed said when asked about Hezbollah’s role in this particular shelter. The group, also a political party that provides welfare services to its community, has opened a few displacement centres, inviting the media to visit. "They co-ordinate with us. We don’t co-ordinate with them,” she clarified.
Lebanon's State has pledged to disarm Hezbollah and has voted all its military activity illegal.
International support is far from sufficient, Ms Sayed warned. The current funding envelope covers only the needs of the 15 per cent of displaced people living in shelters, while 85 per cent are outside the system.
"But if we want to be able to support all those that are outside shelters through a cash transfer programme, we are talking about another $90 to $100 million that we would need on top of that," she explained.
"For those outside shelters, our approach is to provide financial assistance, essentially cash support,” the Minister said. Some 65,000 families have already received a $150 stipend, but the programme needs to be expanded with the help of international donors, with another $90 to $100 million needed over three months.
On top of the economic strain, she warned of risks to “social cohesion” as the mass displacement is coming overwhelmingly from the Shia community.
Israeli repeated strikes on buildings housing displaced families across cities and neighbourhoods have sparked fears among host communities that displaced families might be sheltering Hezbollah members, potentially turning entire buildings into targets.
“I believe the Israelis are probably playing into that,” the minister reacted. “They know the confessional structure in Lebanon and are unfortunately trying to exploit it to create pressure”.
