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Iran is threatening to widen the war with the US and Israel, raising the prospect that two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints could become blocked at the same time.
After disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly a fifth of global oil flows, Tehran is now signalling it could target Bab Al Mandeb, the narrow gateway into the Red Sea.
Together, the two straits form a single corridor linking Gulf energy exports to Europe and other markets. If both are compromised, the impact would extend far beyond the region, hitting supply chains, energy markets and shipping costs worldwide.
Can it do that? And if so, how?
Two channels
Bab Al Mandeb sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, a 29-kilometre-wide passage between Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other. Roughly a tenth of global trade passes through it, including oil, gas and container traffic moving between Asia and Europe.
The strait is divided into two channels by Mayyun Island: a narrower eastern channel, used by smaller vessels, and a wider western channel that carries most large commercial traffic.
Ships entering the strait slow down, funnel into predictable lanes, and pass within range of Yemen’s coastline, placing them well within reach of shore-based missiles, drones, and small-boat attacks.
Connection to Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeb are far apart geographically, but tightly linked operationally. The distance between the two by sea route, along a shipping lane, is between 3,500km and 4,000km.
Ships leave the Gulf, exit via Hormuz, cross the Arabian Sea, enter the Gulf of Aden, pass through Bab Al Mandeb into the Red Sea, and Head to the Suez Canal, then to Europe and other markets.
The two straits are not neighbours, but they are sequential choke points on the same artery. If Hormuz is hit, oil struggles to leave the Gulf. If Bab Al Mandeb is blocked, it struggles to reach Europe. If both are hit, the route breaks end to end. That’s why the combination is far more dangerous than either one alone.
Scenario one: Yemen
Iran can rely on its proxy already positioned along the route. Houthis in Yemen, who control parts of the Red Sea coastline, have spent the past two years demonstrating their ability to strike maritime targets. Using drones, anti-ship missiles and explosive boats, the group targeted commercial vessels during the Red Sea crisis of 2023 and 2024, forcing major shipping companies to divert away.
Insurance premiums surged, transit times lengthened, and global freight costs rose sharply. Crucially, the Houthis did not need to physically shut the strait. By increasing the perceived risk to shipping, they made the route commercially unattractive.
They have not formally entered the current war. But their leadership has repeatedly signalled readiness, and analysts say the group could quickly resume attacks if tensions escalate further and Iran's regime feels more pressure.
Scenario two: Camouflage
Beyond its proxies, Iran can strike targets at a distance using drones and missiles. However, more significantly, it has repurposed some commercial vessels into forward operating platforms capable of launching drones far from its coastline.
Such ships, often indistinguishable from civilian traffic, complicate efforts to monitor and attribute attacks. Rather than imposing a traditional blockade, they create a more diffuse threat, turning an entire shipping corridor into a potential risk zone.
Pricey alternatives
An estimated 6 to 7 million barrels of oil per day transit Bab Al Mandeb, along with a significant share of global container traffic linking Asia to Europe. For many shipping companies, it is the fastest and most cost-effective route between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean.
There are alternatives, but they come at a costly price.
Rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope can add 10 to 15 days to voyages, substantially increase fuel consumption, and tie up vessels for longer, reducing global shipping capacity and driving up freight rates.
With Hormuz already blocked, and Bab Al Mandeb at risk, the result would be a sharp tightening of supply routes. Oil prices would likely rise, shipping costs would increase, and supply chains, already strained by previous disruptions, would face further delays. In that scenario, almost everyone on the planet will feel the consequences.
