While the US-Israeli war on Iran and the ensuing Iranian attacks on its neighbours continue, Gulf countries are working to end the war in the short term while also considering what regional security might look like in the long term.
What is clear is that any future agreement with Iran will no longer focus solely on the nuclear issue but must also address Tehran’s missile programme.
On Sunday, Bahrain submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling for a cessation of hostilities and condemning in the strongest terms what it described as “egregious attacks” by Iran against the territories of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan.
The draft resolution calls for a return to negotiations. While negotiations over this draft, and a competing Russian draft resolution, get under way at the UN, Arab countries want to ensure Iran's missile and drone capabilities are properly addressed.
An Emirati official, speaking on condition of anonymity, explained that Iran’s missile capabilities are now under scrutiny after Tehran’s assault on Gulf countries showed they are designed for attack rather than defence.
“Any new negotiated settlement with Iran will no longer be confined to the nuclear aspect,” the official said. “Missiles are now centre stage, because missiles now are not seen as self-defence.”
Many Middle Eastern officials have in recent weeks warned that a nuclear deal alone would not suffice to avoid a war, referring to the widening gap between Iran’s demands in the diplomatic talks and what the US and, by extension, Israel, were seeking.
While Tehran had previously insisted negotiations focused strictly on its nuclear programme, Washington's strategic calculus was clearly broader as US officials signalled that Iran's nuclear capabilities cannot be viewed in isolation from its ballistic missile programme and its network of regional militant proxies.
Even before the current war, Gulf countries had repeatedly warned about the risks posed by Tehran’s missile strategy, pushing for a comprehensive settlement that protects the security of all countries in the region.
The UAE has been attacked daily by those missiles since February 28. While the country had prepared for the possibility of conflict, the scale of the Iranian attacks was difficult to anticipate.
“We’ve been getting ready, not expecting war but getting ready for a sort of emergency, such as the one that we are facing today,” the official explained.
“The UAE is a country that prepares, and we have been preparing for a long time because of our reading of the situation in the region. We’ve been preparing in terms of food stock, in terms of facilities and so on and so forth.”
However, “what we have seen is something that we did not expect", he clarified. “Time has proven that we have been ready for it, but definitely we did not expect it. We did not think that Iran would actually risk the relations of all its neighbours.”
Regional havoc
Besides Israel, Tehran has turned its fire on the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman, claiming US bases are the targets. But the attacks have struck infrastructure, including oil facilities and residential areas, apparently aimed at pressuring Washington to reconsider its war strategy by putting strain on US allies and on the global economy, given these countries’ influence, particularly in energy markets.
Tehran's risky strategy has badly damaged Iran’s relations with its Gulf neighbours after years of careful rapprochement by those states aimed at stabilising the region and allowing countries to focus on economic growth and innovation.
The UAE, which had previously played a mediating role between Iran and the US, closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrew its ambassador and all members of its diplomatic mission. “The Iranian strategy is to try to create regional havoc,” the UAE official added. “But they did not expect air defences in the Gulf to do so well. Our air defence has done a great job. We have a multilayered system.
“We will continue defending the country, defending everybody here and making sure that slowly we go back to normal. We’re seeing more flights go out. They’re still nowhere near the number of flights that were taking place. We’re still seeing some ports moving.”
The UAE has been defiant in its defensive strategy, using a multilayered system to intercept the vast majority of the hundreds of missiles and drones launched daily. France joined the effort, flying aircraft to help shoot down incoming targets, an action described as “stellar” by the Emirati official.
“Their Rafales moved in from day one,” the official said. “They are part of our continuing air patrols, taking down missiles and taking down mainly drones.”
The official said the French had also helped out after Yemen’s Houthis attacked the capital in 2022. “And then again, this time also, this has kicked in.”
Trust gap
Despite the attacks, the UAE has continued to call for a political solution and is urging Iran to immediately stop strikes on non-combatant Gulf states, which had pledged not to allow their territories to be used to launch US attacks against Tehran.
On Sunday, Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, shut down claims of a change in strategy by saying that any defensive measures taken by the UAE against Iran will be made “public and clear”. His remarks came as Israeli media reports quoted unnamed sources that claimed the UAE attacked a desalination plant in Iran.
The Gulf's decision not to go on the offensive has been noted by key interlocutors who could help bring the war to an end. Zhai Jun, special envoy of the Chinese government in the Middle East, is currently in the region and on Sunday met the Secretary General of the Gulf Co-operation Council, Jasem Al Budaiwi. In a joint statement issued on Sunday night, the Chinese envoy “praised the wise policies pursued by the GCC states”.
“The GCC's commitment to restraint during this crisis is a testament to these prudent policies," he added.
The statement read: “He also commended the outcomes of the emergency GCC ministerial meeting, which underscored that dialogue and negotiations are the only solution to the current crisis."
The Emirati official added: “We have a very clear definition between the Iranian regime and between individual Iranians.
“Any sort of escalation is worrying. We want to contain the war. We don’t want the war to expand. We want to start with the Iranians realising that they are not helping themselves by attacking their whole neighbourhood, and to stop there and realise that. And that, I think also, will open up more avenues towards active mediation.”
He warned of the long-term impact of the crisis. “I am not saying relations between Gulf states and Iran are not going to go back because, at the end of the day, we are neighbours, but it creates a huge trust gap that, in my opinion, will last for decades to come.”
However, the Emirati official was more confident of the long-term effect on his country. “The UAE is strong on fundamentals,” he affirmed. “The formal end of the war might take a little bit longer. But I think then you will see that the fundamentals will kick in.”
