“Don't worry at all about Egypt,“ President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told an iftar gathering on the second day of the US-Israeli war on Iran. “No one, by the grace of God, dare touch this country.”
While meant to reassure, the words of the Egyptian leader conceal Cairo's alarm over Israel's unprecedentedly broad and repeated use of its military might to reshape to its advantage a region already roiling in turmoil since the Gaza war began in 2023.
That Israeli politicians are now publicly speaking of realising a “greater Israel” with biblical borders – from the Nile to the Euphrates – has further stoked Egypt's apprehension over Israel's end game.
Israel's military operations since 2023 have crushed Hamas, severely depleted the military capabilities of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and destroyed most of Syria's weapons and military infrastructure. It has repeatedly struck the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and targeted Hamas leaders in Qatar, a US ally.
Defanging Iran jointly with the US, as is happening now, leaves Israel in a far better strategic position than it occupied on the eve of the Hamas-led attack in October 2023 that triggered the war in Gaza.
“We are the only ones now left in Israel's way,” said Egyptian political and strategic analyst Samir Farag, a retired army general known to be close to the government.
Many ordinary citizens share Gen Farag's assessment, taking to social media to suggest it is only a matter of time before Israel turns its attention to Egypt, which has the region's strongest army.
Gen Farag also believes Israel's next step could be to secure a military presence in southern Egypt's Red Sea coast.
“That will be a big problem for us because we will never accept the presence of Israel or Ethiopia on the Red Sea,” he said, alluding to Israel's recognition of the breakaway Red Sea region of Somaliland, and attempts by landlocked Ethiopia to gain a foothold on the strategic waterway.
Precisely how dangerous Israel could be to Egypt after the removal of the threat once posed by Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria is a question being asked by many Egyptians, who have been expressing their solidarity with Iran against the US and Israel. Many are warning of regionwide chaos in the event of regime change in Tehran.
Meanwhile, Mr El Sisi is being praised lavishly for shielding Egypt from the region's upheavals and for a military shopping spree in the past decade that has brought Egypt a wide range of weaponry, including submarines, frigates, helicopter carriers and fighter jets.
“The simple Egyptian stands with his heart and mind on Iran's side; saddened by any victory for Israel and realising that its might is a danger to all,” said Egyptian analyst Anwar El Hawary.
"A victory by Iran is a victory for the Egyptian people," Haitham Mohamedain, a prominent political activist, wrote on Facebook. "Nothing good could come from victory by the Zionist enemy."
Egypt has placed its forces on high alert after the start of the US-Israel campaign against Iran, with a focus on air defences and combat units deployed on the border with Gaza and Israel in the Sinai Peninsula, according to sources briefed on the heightened preparations.
Egypt and Israel fought four fully fledged wars between 1948 and 1973. The pair signed a US-sponsored peace treaty in 1979 that has over the years come to be viewed as a cornerstone of regional stability.
The treaty, however, has for all practical purposes been a neglected document since the Gaza war started, with Egypt quietly building up its forces at the Israeli border, prompting warnings from Israel's right-wing politicians that Egypt was preparing to go to war and raising questions about its arms procurement.
After 50 years of “cold peace” that never brought Egyptians and Israelis closer, Egypt does sound like a nation bracing for a potential war against its peace partner, despite assurances from Mr El Sisi himself that this is not the case and that peace is Cairo's “strategic choice”.
Egypt's military doctrine, for example, has Israel as its most likely adversary in any future conflict, with the Sinai Peninsula, where the neighbouring countries fought their four wars, the main theatre of operations.
The Gaza war has also deepened Egypt's distrust of its neighbour, with relations plunging to their lowest level in decades amid charges by Cairo that Israel committed genocide in the coastal enclave and deliberately starved the two million Palestinian residents.
Emphasising the military's preparations, Defence Minister Gen Ashraf Zaher has in recent days been inspecting key army combat units to ensure their combat readiness and high morale, according to the military's Facebook page.
