Iran is poised to launch a “fire and revenge” terror campaign against soft targets in the Middle East and worldwide after the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, experts have told The National.
Tehran is expected to have compiled “a list of soft targets globally”, said Dr Lynette Nusbacher, a former military intelligence officer. She warned that Jewish communities and current and former US officials would be among those facing elevated threat levels.
Dr Efrat Sopher, who leads the Iran and Islamist extremism task force at the World Jewish Congress, said dissident cells across the West could be activated and instructed to carry out attacks.
“I'm very concerned that they're going to turn to their terror cells because that's all they've got,” she said. “They're basically using every tool in their kit, and that worries me, and is something we need to be very aware of, even in the Gulf.”
“Anything is possible. This is a regime in distress,” she added. “It’s likely all gloves are off.”
Dr Nusbacher argued that Iran had historically treated acts of revenge as strategic investments. “In the past, we've seen that when they have had a revenge requirement, Iran has been willing to take it as a capital expenditure. So we should be prepared for a campaign of fire and revenge,” she said.
“This could be senior leaders in the United States government and former leaders,” she added. “Somebody who really does need to make sure he's taking a different route to work every day is [former White House adviser] John Bolton, given his position on Iran. Even [US President Donald] Trump, despite his protection, will be at risk.”
Mr Bolton has previously been the subject of alleged Iranian plots, according to US authorities, and has had his security detail removed by Mr Trump.
London-based counterterrorism specialist Roger Macmillan warned that threats could range from low-tech assaults to more sophisticated operations.
He suggested that smaller-scale attacks in London or other European capitals, carried out by loosely affiliated or semi-trained fighters, could not be ruled out, with someone given “£20,000 to go and stab that person”.
“Nothing is off the menu, people need to be vigilant,” he said. He predicted that Iran’s response would intensify over time. “I think their desire for revenge will be there, and it could take several weeks before anything happens.”
Sleeper cells
A western security official said Iran’s history of overseas operations “steeply raises the possibility” of escalation.
“Iran has sleeper cells, so there is the possibility of escalating terrorism,” the source said, pointing to previous attacks on diplomats in Thailand, India and Georgia.
The source also warned that Israeli diplomatic premises in the Middle East could face threats, and that criminal or “thug elements” in parts of Europe could be mobilised.
Despite the dire assessments, experts emphasised that increased vigilance and intelligence co-operation remain the most effective countermeasures.
“This is about preparation and awareness. Governments know the risks,” said Dr Nusbacher. “The question is how Tehran chooses to act and when.”
IRGC threat
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will play a key role in any terror campaign, said Tal Hagin, a military analyst and open-source intelligence expert.
“The IRGC, through its proxies and others, could potentially launch strikes against the Jewish community, pro-Israel people or others around the world,” he said.
But Iran’s capacity to react could be constrained by economic sanctions. “We just don't know what they're capable of at the moment, and they could have a problem, particularly with economic sanctions that could be crippling.”
However, he added, it is difficult to know how Iran’s authorities might react, “because we have no clue as to what their current situation is”.
