The killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the onset of the war with Israel and the US has raised the possibility of a Venezuela-like outcome, with observers suggesting the conflict could end quickly if the new leadership cooperates with Washington.
However, another hardliner could become the unofficial ruler, prolonging the war, or chaos could engulf Iran if unrest resumes and the country fragments along ethnic and religious lines, they cautioned.
Saud Al Sharafat, a Jordanian security specialist and former intelligence brigadier general, told The National that the killing of Mr Khamenei on Saturday "removed a major obstacle" toward an outcome resembling Venezuela.
Its interim leader, Declu Rodriguez, overturned decades of anti-Americanism and repression by agreeing to US oil demands and releasing political prisoners. The change came after the abduction of her ally and former boss, Nicolas Maduro, during US attacks in January. Venezuela's oil oil reserves are the world's largest, while Iran is among the world’s top ten oil producers.
"Someone in the Iranian system must be thinking that our missiles will eventually run out, and that the nuclear programme has brought disaster. Iran’s proxies’ response has also been muted,” said Mr Al Sharafat.
"What Trump wants at the end of the day is someone who co-operates with him. It would ensure the survival of the regime in Tehran," added Mr Al Sharafat, who leads the Shorufat ِCentre for Globalisation and Terrorism Studies.
The three-day war in the heart of the global energy system is shaping up as one of the most consequential conflicts so far this century. Mr Trump cited Iran's insistence on maintaining its nuclear programme and ballistic missile development as the main reasons for the war. The President told CBS on Saturday that he knows who has been “calling the shots” in Iran since Khamenei's death, and there are people he views as "good candidates” to replace him.
Mr Khamenei was both temporal and religious under the Shiite theocracy that replaced the Shah in 1979. His elimination removed the man who had suppressed reformists over the last 25 years. In foreign policy, he built on the anti-American and anti-Israeli doctrine of his mentor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, by resisting American initiatives in the Middle East and expanding Iran’s network of allied militant groups in the region.
The late Khomeini, however, signed a UN-mediated end to the 1980-1988 war with Iraq as the US became militarily involved in the conflict through its navy in the Arab Gulf. With a US armada gathering near Iran, Khamenei still refused to sign a deal Iran viewed as conceding too much.
However, the repeated repression he oversaw may haunt his replacement, said Mr Al Sharafat. “Under the surface, many Iranians remain a product of an open civilisation", not the religious indoctrination from the top, and the regime could be swept away this time if protests resume. "The aftermath could be a mess," said Mr Al Sharafat, adding that the country could break up.
Members of the paramilitary Organisation for Mobilisation of the Oppressed, known as the Basij, have reportedly deployed in urban centres. The group has been a main tool for the regime to crush protests for decades. Mr Al Sharafat, however, said it may become more difficult to suppress dissent under military pressures and disruption to oil exports.
A western official who had met Iranian officials regularly before the war said Mr Trump has "no real interest in democracy," but the removal of Mr Khamenei and several senior aides raises the chances for a Venezuela-style deal.
"Regime change for Trump is to take the top tier out and do an oil deal with the second layer," he explained, cautioning that "Iran is not Venezuela" because the system is militarily stronger and more committed to its ideology, making it more difficult to "betray Khamenei’s stance".
Following his killing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would take revenge with "successive, regrettable slaps," counting 27 US bases as well as compounds in Israel among the targets it has struck so far.
A former Syrian officer trained in Iran said that, for now, the hardliners remain in control and "they will use everything at their disposal. They feel the stench of death approaching. If they cannot reach Israel, they will focus on striking their nearer surroundings".
