Yemen needs a new counter-terrorism strategy to tackle the growing Al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood threat following the withdrawal of UAE operatives, analysts have told The National.
The lack of counter-terrorism teams could now mean that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will “prosper”, security analysts have warned.
The departure of the Emirati personnel risks creating a dangerous vacuum in parts of Yemen already destabilised by political infighting and militia rivalries.
AQAP, one of the most deadly international terror groups, has long exploited weak governance and internal divisions to regroup and expand.
Wolf-Christian Paes, a Yemen expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said the security environment is deteriorating further, with troubling reports emerging about extremist activity, including from Somalian terrorists.
“There are allegations about Al Shabab training camps in Yemen now,” he said. “The plot is thickening.”
Mr Paes added that Yemen urgently needs a coherent counter-terrorism strategy, comparable to the international one against the Houthi movement. “By fighting with each other, you’re not getting any closer to it,” he said.
While it mattered less who led counter-terrorism operations, the UAE had one of the strongest track records. “Arguably, the Emiratis have historically had the best CT record,” he said, referring to their role in the liberation of Mukalla and Hadramout in 2016 and 2017.
The UAE on Tuesday announced it was withdrawing all remaining counter-terrorism teams from Yemen hours after a Saudi strike hit armoured vehicles belonging to its forces in the southern port of Mukalla.
The UAE ended its military presence within the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2019 but retained a limited number of specialised teams as part of counter-terrorism efforts
Those operatives had played a central role in combating not only AQAP and ISIS, but also the Muslim Brotherhood-linked extremist groups, said Inbal Nissim-Louvton, recognised as Israel’s leading expert on Yemen.
She warned that recent reports of Al Qaeda regaining influence in some areas could embolden other armed groups.
“This may be a signal for other groups that whatever you want to take, you take now by force,” she said, pointing to political tensions between Yemen’s Presidential Council and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) as a factor undermining stability.
Despite the withdrawal, Ms Nissim-Louvton said the UAE still retains significant influence in southern Yemen through local partners. “The UAE has a really strong foothold in South Yemen, with security belts and other military forces operating,” she said. “They would be able to continue lending their weight in anti-terrorism activities, even when they are not physically there.”
But the withdrawal of a relatively small number of Emirati personnel, measured in the hundreds, could have a significant impact, Mr Paes warned. “What we’re seeing is an increasing vacuum and the Saudis are not stepping in, and they have largely withdrawn as well.”
That vacuum, he added, is now being filled by competing Yemeni militias in the south, which is “precisely the kind of environment where terrorist forces prosper”.
AQAP has also been mobilising in recent years. “Compared with where they were coming from, AQAP has been gaining momentum,” Mr Paes said, and analysts fear the trend could accelerate without a unified counter-terrorism approach.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
