Yemen needs new counter-terrorism strategy after UAE teams withdraw, experts say

Warnings also made that Al Qaeda and other terror groups could 'prosper' in power vacuum

Yemen needs a new counter-terrorism strategy to tackle the growing Al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood threat following the withdrawal of UAE operatives, analysts have told The National.

The lack of counter-terrorism teams could now mean that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will “prosper”, security analysts have warned.

The departure of the Emirati personnel risks creating a dangerous vacuum in parts of Yemen already destabilised by political infighting and militia rivalries.

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AQAP, one of the most deadly international terror groups, has long exploited weak governance and internal divisions to regroup and expand.

Arab coalition forces operating in Yemen. Faisal Al Nasser / Reuters

Wolf-Christian Paes, a Yemen expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said the security environment is deteriorating further, with troubling reports emerging about extremist activity, including from Somalian terrorists.

“There are allegations about Al Shabab training camps in Yemen now,” he said. “The plot is thickening.”

Mr Paes added that Yemen urgently needs a coherent counter-terrorism strategy, comparable to the international one against the Houthi movement. “By fighting with each other, you’re not getting any closer to it,” he said.

While it mattered less who led counter-terrorism operations, the UAE had one of the strongest track records. “Arguably, the Emiratis have historically had the best CT record,” he said, referring to their role in the liberation of Mukalla and Hadramout in 2016 and 2017.

The UAE on Tuesday announced it was withdrawing all remaining counter-terrorism teams from Yemen hours after a Saudi strike hit armoured vehicles belonging to its forces in the southern port of Mukalla.

The UAE ended its military presence within the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2019 but retained a limited number of specialised teams as part of counter-terrorism efforts

Those operatives had played a central role in combating not only AQAP and ISIS, but also the Muslim Brotherhood-linked extremist groups, said Inbal Nissim-Louvton, recognised as Israel’s leading expert on Yemen.

Damaged military vehicles hit in Saudi Arabia air strikes in Mukalla. AFP

She warned that recent reports of Al Qaeda regaining influence in some areas could embolden other armed groups.

“This may be a signal for other groups that whatever you want to take, you take now by force,” she said, pointing to political tensions between Yemen’s Presidential Council and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) as a factor undermining stability.

Despite the withdrawal, Ms Nissim-Louvton said the UAE still retains significant influence in southern Yemen through local partners. “The UAE has a really strong foothold in South Yemen, with security belts and other military forces operating,” she said. “They would be able to continue lending their weight in anti-terrorism activities, even when they are not physically there.”

But the withdrawal of a relatively small number of Emirati personnel, measured in the hundreds, could have a significant impact, Mr Paes warned. “What we’re seeing is an increasing vacuum and the Saudis are not stepping in, and they have largely withdrawn as well.”

That vacuum, he added, is now being filled by competing Yemeni militias in the south, which is “precisely the kind of environment where terrorist forces prosper”.

AQAP has also been mobilising in recent years. “Compared with where they were coming from, AQAP has been gaining momentum,” Mr Paes said, and analysts fear the trend could accelerate without a unified counter-terrorism approach.