Gaza’s ceasefire was put to the test for a second time on Tuesday, after a chain of escalations that underlined just how volatile relations between Hamas and Israel are.
It began with Israel accusing Hamas of breaking commitments on the return of hostage remains, as well as clashes that killed an Israeli soldier, leading to intense bombardment that killed more than 100 people in Gaza.
The violence came just over a week after a similar round of strikes, prompted by another disputed incident, a grim reminder of the many fears about the durability of the ceasefire deal.
While lauded internationally at the time, the agreement faces criticism for being too vague to work, particularly in its later stages that focus on the disarmament of Hamas, the reconstruction of Gaza and a full Israeli withdrawal from the coastal strip, phases that have not even been reached yet.
In the days following the first escalation on October 19, a string of senior US officials travelled to Israel to follow up on the progress of the ceasefire deal initiated by President Donald Trump. Some in the media called this “Bibi-sitting”, a reference to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s nickname and fears that he might blow up the deal for his own political gain amid threats from parties in his coalition to walk away because they want the war to continue.
The US pressure seemed to divert the deal back on track, but with another escalation only days after the visits ended, fears are mounting that the ceasefire will collapse.
Anger among hawkish Israelis is rearing its head again, particularly after Israeli accusations that Hamas is manipulating the exchange of bodies for its own gain. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said on Wednesday that Mr Netanyahu’s government “will have no right to exist” if it does not commit to dismantling Hamas, an objective Mr Ben-Gvir has consistently tied to the resumption of the war in Gaza.
Even if both sides commit to the deal, the complex situation on the ground presents plenty of scope for misunderstanding. A report by Israeli news outlet Walla on Wednesday said Israel’s military is still unsure as to whether Hamas ordered Tuesday’s attack on Israeli forces, or whether it was a sleeper cell that acted of its own accord, fearing Israeli troops would soon kill them.
Uncertainty also lingers around the extent to which Hamas is capable of finding the remaining bodies of Israeli hostages.
Israel insists that delays in extracting corpses are down to cynical Hamas tactics. Hamas denies this and says that the extent of destruction across Gaza after two years of war, coupled with a lack of heavy machinery and access to all areas, makes it difficult to find the bodies.
Palestinian political analyst Hani Al Aqqad told The National that the ceasefire is “hanging by a thread”.
Despite a number of international guarantees, he said, the truce is undermined by Israel’s continued occupation of vast areas east of the so-called Yellow Line – the first stage of the Israeli military's withdrawal – that effectively divides Gaza into two disconnected territories.
“Anyone who tries to approach the line is shot,” Mr Al Aqqad said. “This reality alone makes the ceasefire unsustainable.”
Mr Al Aqqad added that while tension over the return of hostage remains has significant potential to derail the deal, the biggest challenge will be the next stage, which features disarmament, foreign peacekeepers and reconstruction plans.
“Israel is approaching Gaza with arrogance,” he said. “It wants Hamas completely disarmed, something the movement will never accept. Such a demand contradicts its founding principles and would deeply embarrass it both inside and outside Gaza.”
Mr Al Aqqad believes international mediators must act urgently to salvage the ceasefire. “Gaza cannot wait,” he said. “The mediators must pressure Israel to withdraw and start the second phase of the agreement, even if the issue of the bodies remains unresolved.”
