Ethiopia has officially opened its new megadam on the Blue Nile, the largest in Africa and a point of contention with downstream neighbours Egypt and Sudan since construction began in 2011.
The site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, near the Ethiopian town of Bameza just past the border with Sudan, was visited by dignitaries on Tuesday including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who inaugurated the dam and unveiled a marble plaque.
The ceremony was a grand affair, with a large military parade showcasing Ethiopia's armed forces, while traditional dancers clad in vibrant cultural attire performed to the rhythm of drums and songs, celebrating the dam's completion with an air of pride and festivity.
Among the attendees were the presidents of Djibouti, South Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. Representatives of the UN and the African Union were also in attendance.
The President of Ethiopia, Taye Atske Selassie, celebrated the opening in a post on X in which he called the megadam “a reward of Ethiopian people's resilience". He called it the "first of many great things to come.”
The opening of the dam, which is expected to bring electricity - about 6,000 megawatts - to tens of millions of Ethiopians previously unconnected to a power grid, has also been celebrated by Ethiopian civil society as a milestone towards development and improved trade, industry and foreign relations.
However, since the start of its construction, the dam has been viewed as an existential threat by Egypt and Sudan, who have engaged in several rounds of talks over the past decade in the hope of reaching an agreement with Ethiopia to ensure the water is shared equitably with downstream countries.
In response to the inauguration, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it had filed a letter to the UN Security Council, condemning Ethiopia's unilateral actions and urging intervention to address what Cairo has called a violation of international law.
Egypt said it "rejects all unilateral Ethiopian measures on the Nile" and will "not recognise or accept their consequences, which harm Egypt's existential interests and the rights of downstream countries".
An agreement has thus far eluded all parties with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi decrying what he called “unilateral actions” on Ethiopia’s part, in an August speech during a visit to Cairo by Uganda’s president.
He said Egypt had been subjected to a “pressure campaign” aimed at forcing it to accept the dam as a reality. “Whoever thinks Egypt will simply acquiesce to threats to its water security is wrong. We will continue to follow and take all measures allowed to us under international law to safeguard our people’s resources," Mr El Sisi said.
He has made similar proclamations in the past and appealed to the US and the EU to intervene in the dispute.
Strategic fears
Dr Nour Ahmed, a strategic water resources expert in Cairo, described to The National a general state of anxiety over Egypt's vital share of the Nile’s waters, especially as it faces mounting economic challenges, national security threats and conflicts on virtually all its borders.
“Egypt is not against the dam, nor is it against the development of Ethiopia, which is why we signed the principle agreement in 2015, as a message that we are willing to work in tandem with Addis Ababa on sharing the water. However, since then, it has repeatedly refused to agree to secure Egypt’s share of 55 billion cubic metres annually. This makes the government’s fear entirely founded,” Dr Ahmed said.
He added that Mr El Sisi's belief that the dam is being used as a political chip to ensure Egypt’s co-operation on unrelated matters has also gained more credibility in Cairo due to Ethiopia’s “intransigence and belligerent refusal to even engage with our request for basic water security".
“What we saw with the wars in Gaza and Sudan is that the national security matters of other countries, of which water security is most important, can and are often used by foreign, often western, powers to accomplish their ends. This is why Trump can speak so confidently of being able to force Egypt to take in Gaza’s displaced people, all for his darling Israel,” he said.
“What we are afraid of, in Cairo now, is that if we allow our resources and basic rights to slip away, they may very well be used against us in the future. Who’s to say that in twenty years we will even have the capability to refuse Palestinian displacement.”
Another concern increasingly occupying the minds of officials and experts in Egypt is that Ethiopia has managed to drum up support for the dam from several powerful nations including Israel, with which it signed an agreement “to work closely in the fields of water resources and energy development”.
“We are worried that Israeli support or approval will inevitably bring American approval. Aside from that, a number of Gulf countries have also purchased tens of thousands of acres of agricultural lands near the dam which will be watered by it," Dr Ahmed said.
"That makes two powerful political blocs already poised to make achieving Egypt’s interests much more difficult,” Dr Ahmed said, echoing Mr El Sisi’s concern that Egypt was being “pushed into acquiescence”.
Drought risk
There has not been a Nile drought in the 15 years since the dam was first announced, which has prevented diplomacy from spilling over into confrontation. However Dr Ahmed said Nile droughts are cyclical and "one will be upon us in no time".
"At that point, Egypt will have to find another way to manoeuvre this conflict because the use of force in these matters historically doesn’t garner results," he said.
"All signs [indicate] this will be a long conflict that will require years, even decades, of diplomacy. And Sudan's war has made it a rather unreliable partner with regards to the Gerd struggle, so Cairo has been fighting this alone."
The two countries' relations have also soured significantly over Ethiopia’s heated pursuit of Red Sea access, which it intends to secure against all odds, according to a televised speech by Abiy Ahmed a week ago.
Ethiopia became landlocked when it separated from Eritrea in 1993 following a long war for the latter’s independence. This has made Ethiopia rely mostly on neighbouring Djibouti for the majority of its imports and exports.
“We have been silent for decades, but remaining a prisoner of the land is no longer sustainable. This is not a matter of pride—it has become an existential issue,” Abiy Ahmed declared.
Such statements have caused tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which has repeatedly said it views Addis Ababa’s push for Red Sea access as “reckless” and “belligerence”.
In a July statement, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki warned Ethiopia against any war ambitions saying, “If they [Ethiopia] think they can overwhelm Eritrean forces through human-wave attacks, they are mistaken.”
Additionally, Ethiopia in 2024 signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a small coastal region of Somalia which has harboured breakaway ambitions since the 1990s, which would allow Ethiopia to lease for 50 years a 20-kilometre stretch of coastline to establish a naval port there.
In exchange, Ethiopia will become the first country in Africa to formally recognise Somaliland’s statehood. The deal has been met with outrage and increased tensions dramatically with Somalia and Eritrea.
Ethiopia’s ambitions in the Red Sea have been categorically rejected by Egypt with the country’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty asserting in July that Cairo will not tolerate an Ethiopian naval presence on the Red Sea, and that for any country which does not have soil on the coast to have a military force on it was a “red line” for Egypt.
