Lebanon has received western guarantees that Israel will withdraw from its territory and commit to a ceasefire, a Lebanese political source told The National.
In exchange Lebanon is expected to enter a "new phase” in which its army becomes the sole legitimate holder of weapons in the country, while Hezbollah has also agreed to disarm, the source added.
“If the US and French guarantees move forward, I estimate we can move on to the next phase,” the source said. “Our biggest priority is establishing a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal – before anything else.”
The source was speaking after a visit by US envoy Thomas Barrack, during which leaders in Beirut submitted a seven-page response to Washington's road map for Hezbollah's disarmament and Lebanon’s integration into what the US views as a new era of regional stability under western influence.
“The overall meeting that happened between [Lebanese leaders] and Barrack was much preferable to our expectations,” the source said.
He described Lebanon’s response to the proposal as acceptance of “a new opportunity and giving the Israelis an opportunity to [end the conflict]”.
He confirmed the response to Washington included a "plan for the army to secure and facilitate the state's legal authority over all arms in the country".
But despite the guarantees the source expressed some doubt, citing an escalation of Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory in the past week.
Israel has continued to carry out strikes on Lebanon despite a ceasefire that ended 14 months of war with Hezbollah in November. The truce called for Hezbollah to begin disarming south of the Litani River in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
Officials in Beirut have criticised the ceasefire deal as one-sided, claiming it has failed to stop Israel attacking Lebanon. Israel still maintains a military occupation of five points along the border separating the two countries.
While Hezbollah, a powerful political party and paramilitary force that suffered devastating losses in the war, has co-operated with Lebanese authorities south of the Litani, the US has increased pressure on the country's leaders to push for the group to lay down its weapons.
Mr Barrack’s visit, which promoted the US-backed road map, reflected what he has described as a “carrot and stick” strategy, linking Hezbollah’s disarmament to the end of Israeli military operations and US funding for Lebanon’s post-war reconstruction.
Lebanon’s political leadership has expressed broad agreement that the state should hold exclusive military authority. However, senior figures have urged the US to adopt a softer approach, citing the difficulty of making a case for Hezbollah’s full disarmament as Israeli attacks continue.
One western diplomat in Lebanon described the US proposal as “an extension of the ceasefire, driven by a medium and long-term vision for what’s needed to restore stability".
"It’s not about setting deadlines; it’s a parallel-track approach. As progress is made on one front, reciprocal actions are taken on the other."
Washington has made clear that Lebanon-Israel relations are not its priority following the region’s shift towards western influence, the diplomat told The National. “If the Lebanese choose not to engage, so be it. The reality is that Lebanon is not a US priority when it comes to normalisation. The real focus is Syria.”
Lebanon has been beholden to foreign influence since its inception. Hezbollah’s losses, along with an about-turn in Syria’s 13-year civil war that brought an Islamist government to power, have created a willingness to align with US interests.
At the same time, Iran’s influence in the region diminished. This has allowed Lebanon, caught between the US and its allies on one side, and Iran and its allies on the other, to move on from years of state paralysis.
All sources who spoke to The National requested anonymity due to the “highly sensitive” nature of the negotiations.
In an interview with Lebanese channel LBCI, Mr Barrack denied that Washington was imposing hard deadlines on the state to ensure Hezbollah disarms.
“There's no threats, there's no dictates," he said. "Look around you. The region is changing. Everything is changing. If you don't want to change, if the people don't want to change, just tell us and we'll not interfere.
“If Lebanon wants to just keep kicking this can down the road, they can keep kicking the can down the road but we're not going to be here in May having this discussion.”
A pro-US Lebanese politician echoed the urgency of the situation. “No one is going to wait forever for the Lebanese,” he said. “You’ve seen the tactical shift happening in the Middle East. Alliances are shifting rapidly. No one wants to see Lebanon fall behind.”
