Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s recent threat to “turn Tehran into Beirut” with attacks on civilian areas will be difficult to execute without direct US involvement, Iranian analysts and citizens told The National.
They pointed to Tehran’s vast size and distance from Israel, as well as Iran’s military strength and defensive capabilities, as major obstacles.
The "Dahieh Doctrine" – named after Israel’s 2006 destruction of the Beirut residential suburb, which is Hezbollah’s seat of power – relies on using overwhelming force against enemy infrastructure in civilian areas. It aims to cause destruction and sow discord, ultimately causing the civilian population to turn against Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Gaza. But analysts said such a doctrine cannot be easily applied to Iran.
The Israelis "are trying to replicate their strategy in Lebanon,” said Seyed Emamian, an assistant professor at Tehran Polytechnic University, referring to Israel’s sudden and deadly air and ground campaign against Hezbollah in late 2024. “But Iran is quite different in terms of size, military, geography, and distance from Israel.”
In Lebanon, Israel's military campaign began with a shock-and-awe air offensive and a targeted decapitation strategy against Hezbollah’s leadership. Israeli air superiority – made possible by Lebanon’s lack of air defence systems or a functioning air force – allowed near-total freedom of operation. The offensive also followed an unprecedented Mossad spy operation that crippled much of Hezbollah’s fighting force.
Israel was also successful in assassinating long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Then it assassinated his replacement, “and his replacement’s replacement,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in October of last year. They also took out the vast majority of Hezbollah’s remaining command structure.
Unlike Hezbollah, Iran’s armed forces – particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – possesses an extensive air defence network and a layered military hierarchy that cannot be neutralised with decapitation strikes alone, according to Mr Emamian.
“They wanted to dismantle the army’s leadership chain. But there are huge numbers of leadership in the Iranian army,” said Mr Emamian, who is also the co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran. “The IRGC is not comparable to Hezbollah in terms of command structure.”
The scale and capabilities of the Iranian military, combined with its geographic depth, make any attempt to replicate Israel’s Lebanon strategy in Tehran far more complex – a campaign that may ultimately rely on drawing the US into direct military intervention.
Civilian mood
Meanwhile, in Tehran – a sprawling metropolis of more than 10 million – thousands have fled amid repeated Israeli calls to evacuate, but few see these warnings as realistic.
“Honestly most people are behaving as Iranians normally behave during the holidays,” Mr Emamian said of the traffic jams and the mass exodus. He himself has left the city for the countryside, like many others. “Tehran is less crowded now. But there’s no public panic because Tehran is huge. There are some people who don’t hear or see the strikes.”
For nearly two years, Iranian citizens watched as Israel wrought devastation in Gaza and Lebanon and their government, which backs numerous regional proxies, attempted to avoid war on its own doorstep.
“But of course we didn’t imagine there would be a war and that they would strike Iran in this way,” said Ahmad Jahandar, 43, who lives in the city of Rasht, near the Caspian Sea.
Still he, too, was doubtful of Israel’s threats to “burn Tehran”. “Greater Tehran has 15 million people in it,” he said dismissively in response to the Israeli threats.
“Dozens of women and children have been killed. We’re being attacked even night and day,” he said. He referred to US President Donald Trump's warning to Iranians to evacuate the capital and said "I don't think psychological warfare is useful in such cases".
