Enrichment facilities at Iran's Natanz site, where operations are central to its nuclear programme. Tehran insists its nuclear power is for civilian applications only. AFP
Enrichment facilities at Iran's Natanz site, where operations are central to its nuclear programme. Tehran insists its nuclear power is for civilian applications only. AFP
Enrichment facilities at Iran's Natanz site, where operations are central to its nuclear programme. Tehran insists its nuclear power is for civilian applications only. AFP
Enrichment facilities at Iran's Natanz site, where operations are central to its nuclear programme. Tehran insists its nuclear power is for civilian applications only. AFP

Timeline: Diplomacy and confrontation over Iran's nuclear programme


Amr Mostafa
  • English
  • Arabic

The US and Iran are preparing for high-level talks in Oman on Saturday. The negotiations are a revival of efforts to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapons programme, which it denies seeking, in exchange for easing of sanctions that have taken a heavy toll on its economy.

A 2015 deal between Tehran and six world powers – the US, Russia, China, France, the UK and Germany – came to nothing after President Donald Trump abandoned the deal in 2018.

2013 - 2019: Deal made, then broken

November 2013: Iran and the six powers announce an interim agreement that temporarily curbs Tehran's nuclear programme and unfreezes some Iranian assets, setting the stage for negotiations on a comprehensive nuclear accord.

April 2015: A framework nuclear deal is announced, outlining long-term restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme and the removal of many international sanctions.

Officials involved in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from left, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, EU Minister for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Tehran's Atomic Energy Organisation chief Ali Akbar Saleh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, US Secretary of State John Kerry and American Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. Getty Images
Officials involved in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from left, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, EU Minister for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Tehran's Atomic Energy Organisation chief Ali Akbar Saleh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, US Secretary of State John Kerry and American Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. Getty Images

July 14, 2015: World powers and Iran announce a long-term, comprehensive nuclear agreement.

May 2018: Mr Trump, in the second year of his first term, unilaterally withdraws the US from the nuclear agreement, calling it the “worst deal ever”.

August 2018: The Trump administration begins to reimpose sanctions on Iran that were lifted under the nuclear accord, targeting a range of sectors from carpets and pistachios to gold and commercial aircraft. This is part of the "maximum pressure" strategy.

November 2018: The US re-enforces the most onerous sanctions that were lifted under the deal, targeting Iran’s banking and oil sectors.

April 2019: Mr Trump designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organisation, the first time the US has blacklisted part of another nation’s military in this way.

May 2019: Iran announces it will begin breaching the accord, setting a 60-day ultimatum for Europe to compensate for American-led sanctions before it begins enriching uranium to higher levels.

June 25, 2019: Mr Trump imposes new sanctions on supreme leader Ali Khamenei and his associates.

July 1, 2019: Iran announces it has exceeded the nuclear deal’s curbs on its low-enriched uranium stockpile.

September 3, 2019: The US sanctions Iran’s civilian space agency, alleging the programme is cover for testing ballistic missile technology.

September 7, 2019: Iran begins spinning advanced gas enrichment centrifuges prohibited under the 2015 deal.

November 6, 2019: Iran injects uranium gas into centrifuges at its underground Fordow plant.

2020: Suspected sabotage and a new US president

Joe Biden was elected US president in November 2020. AP
Joe Biden was elected US president in November 2020. AP

April 22, 2020: The IRGC launches its first satellite into space, revealing what experts describe as a secret military space programme.

July 2020: An explosion at a centrifuge production plant at Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. Iran blames the blast on Israeli sabotage.

October 2020: A decade-long UN arms embargo on Iran that banned it from purchasing foreign weapons expires as scheduled under the nuclear deal, despite American objections.

November 2020: Joe Biden wins the US presidential election.

2021: IAEA oversight weakened

January 4, 2021: Iran begins enriching uranium up to 20 per cent and seizes a South Korean-flagged oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz.

February 23, 2021: The International Atomic Energy Agency loses access to its surveillance cameras, as well as data from its online enrichment monitors and electronic seals amid a standoff with Iran. Tehran pledges to hold on to the tapes and give them back when granted sanctions relief.

April 6, 2021: Iran and the US begin indirect negotiations in Vienna over how to restore the nuclear deal.

April 11, 2021: A second attack on the Natanz nuclear site, with suspicion again falling on Israel.

April 16, 2021: Iran begins enriching uranium up to 60 per cent – its highest purity so far and a technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent.

June 19, 2021: Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline protege of Mr Khamenei, is elected Iran's president.

December 1, 2021: The IAEA says Iran has begun feeding 166 advanced IR-6 enrichment centrifuges at Fordow.

December 15, 2021: The IAEA and Iran reach a deal to reinstall cameras damaged at the Karaj nuclear facility, although inspectors' access to video is restricted.

2022: Opportunities lost

March 12, 2022: Nuclear talks in Vienna break off without an agreement as Russia demands guarantees that its ties with Tehran be exempted from western sanctions over its war in Ukraine.

May 11, 2022: The European Union sends its envoy for the nuclear talks to Tehran, as negotiations hit a deadlock over Iran’s demand that Washington lift its terrorism designation of the IRGC.

June 8, 2022: IAEA board of governors censures Iran for failing to provide answers on man-made traces of uranium found at three undeclared sites. Iran disconnects two IAEA surveillance cameras.

June 9, 2022: Iran begins disconnecting 27 IAEA surveillance cameras at the country’s nuclear sites, as it prepares to install more IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz.

June 28, 2022: Iran and the US begin a series of indirect talks in Qatar over the nuclear deal.

August 4, 2022: Negotiators from Iran, the US and the EU hold indirect talks on a tentative deal, but it falls apart. France, Germany and Britain later say Iran “has chosen not to seize this critical diplomatic opportunity”.

November 17, 2022: The IAEA censures Iran for failing to co-operate with its safeguards investigation.

2023: Iran's proxies spark rise in regional tensions

February 23, 2023: Iran directly acknowledges an accusation attributed to international inspectors that it enriched particles of uranium to 84 per cent purity for the first time. The issue ultimately is settled, but puts new pressure on negotiators.

October 7, 2023: Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip storm into Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage. This begins the most-intense war yet between Israel and Hamas. Iran, which has armed Hamas, offers support to the militants. Regional tensions spike.

2024 - 2025: Return of Trump

Donald Trump was re-elected as US president in November 2024. AP
Donald Trump was re-elected as US president in November 2024. AP

June 5, 2024: The IAEA board of governors censures Iran for failing to co-operate fully with the agency.

June 14, 2024: The IAEA says Iran has started up new cascades of advanced centrifuges and plans to install others after facing criticism over its nuclear programme.

November 2024: Mr Trump wins the US presidential election.

April 7, 2025: Mr Trump makes a surprise announcement that the US and Iran will begin talks on Tehran's nuclear programme.

April 9, 2025: Iran welcomes US investors and offers nuclear assurances in major shift of tone.

War and the virus
The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
  • Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
  • Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
  • Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
 
 
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