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Clearing the tonnes of rubble left in Gaza by the 15 months of Israeli bombardment could take far less time than the UN previously estimated, under the right conditions and if the Israeli blockade is removed, experts told The National on Wednesday.
A UN reconstruction official said the agency's assessment last year of debris removal requiring at least 15 years for completion is being used by the US as a pretext to legitimise displacing the enclave's population of 2.3 million Palestinians.
"This is the highest figure I've heard – and now the issue is becoming very political," one UN expert said, referring to Israel's banning of necessary machinery such excavators from entering the Gaza Strip. "The rubble can be removed in way less time if the blockade is removed."
UN agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) had estimated that clearing the Gaza Strip of rubble will take 15 years and cost $500 million to $600 million, based on a UN Environment Programme report.
Ahmad Al Dalou, Deputy project manager of the Gaza Reconstruction Committee at Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The National that the US's touting of the 15-year figure is "proof that they do not have the intention of rebuilding quickly".
"In my opinion, as an engineer who worked in reconstruction in Gaza, all the rubble could be cleared in a time period of no more than two years if the necessary equipment was brought in, and the Strip was split into sections. The work could be done in parallel to remove the destroyed buildings," he said.
Mr Al Dalou also said that the majority of the human cadres required for reconstruction and rubble removal already exist in Gaza.
The UN, which has created a specialised task force to deal with the removal of debris, has also said rubble contains human remains and unexploded ordnance that pose a danger to people.
The issue, however, has become politicised by the US so it can argue in favour of displacing the entire population of the Gaza Strip, the UN source said. "The Americans are playing on this fact to say people in Gaza need to leave," they said.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said his country was going to take over Gaza and resettle Palestinians elsewhere. His comments followed his earlier calls last month to "clean out" Gaza, pushing for the "evacuation" of its people into Jordan and Egypt, which prompted international outrage and condemnation.
But the complete displacement of Gaza's people is not a necessity in order to complete rubble removal and reconstruction, Mr Al Dalou said.
"There are only probably two areas that are completely destroyed and where people cannot be present - but people can still be settled in camps or mobile homes nearby until that work is completed," he added.
Gaza is currently in the first of a three-phase ceasefire that began on January 19. The current stage of the fragile cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel will involve the release of 33 hostages from Gaza into Israel in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees being freed from Israeli jails.
During the second phase, the release of the remaining hostages and withdrawal of Israeli troops from the strip will be the focus, while the third covers reconstruction of Gaza, where up to December two thirds of the pre-war structures had been damaged or flattened, according to UN satellite data. That amounts to about 69 per cent of the structures in Gaza. At least 90 per cent the population has been displaced.
Days after the ceasefire began, the Rafah border crossing opened for the first time since its closure last May, allowing aid to enter and patients to depart for medical treatment abroad. It has not been open for anyone wanting to return to Gaza.
"We all know that the reconstruction is phase three of the ceasefire agreement – so the Israelis plan to make people leave Gaza voluntarily and the way to do that is to delay the reconstruction, so people want to leave because there is nothing left for them to live for inside," the UN source added.
Part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal includes bringing in 60,000 caravans and 200,000 tents but more than 17 days since it came into effect, that has not happened.
"Israel is delaying bringing in temporary housing and tents, as well as heavy equipment needed for the reconstruction as part of the humanitarian protocol of the agreement," the source said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
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